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Posts by "callum"

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241 Posts Total by "callum":
177 Posts by member
Callum
(Singapore, Singapore)
64 Posts by Anonymous "callum":
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Callum
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 5, 2010 16:37
In Thread: Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
@chloe - We may have to wait to see how the Fed discount rate story plays out today.
Callum
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 1, 2010 12:52
In Thread: GBP
Ashraf mentioned in his earlier IMTs about the unlikely scenario of GBPUSD 1.53, but I won't be surprised if this holiday madness plus NFP gets everyone to eye on March's high of 1.5376. As for GBPJPY, it's already blown out daily moving average 100. The next step I guess is to wait-and-see.
Callum
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Mar 31, 2010 16:07
In Thread: EUR Trade Index 18-Year Chart
@sydneyjames - I understand from Ashraf's recent TV interview and other articles that the inverse correlation between USDX and Equities is broken, ie, both can go up simultaneously. We can see this anyways in recent while, ie, DJI/SPX AND USDX making new highs post recession with EURUSD making new lows. I am also noting Ashraf's view on US equity market not falling until post summer (northern hemisphere), while, USDX upside seems more immediate. The JPY vs US Equities correlation seems much intact.
Callum
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Mar 31, 2010 10:59
In Thread: GBP
@INGbalek - indeed, looks that way. A USDJPY 94 and above should easily take it up there. I am looking at 142.20 (daily EMA.100) as potential barrier, and subsequently around 143.60 (61.8% fib) ...

How much of the UK/GBP bearishness will factor in these upsides?? In my naive view, I would have thought cable's bearishness should drag this pair down, but, seems that the JPY weakness is overshadowing GBP weakness.

In the meantime, wondering what comes out of Japan/China talks this weekend....
Callum
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Mar 30, 2010 10:07
In Thread: JPY
I am guessing an extremely disappointing NFP number on Friday would sent the JPY higher, enough to trigger a short-term reversal??? On the other hand, if NFP is on target or exceeds expectation, then, JPY weakness could really shoot up, eg, towards Jan high. For example, 8-Jan-2010: NFP expectations were off the roofs; but, crushed expectations sent the USDJPY lower. With the equity markets closed on Friday, I am not sure how much of the reaction we see on Friday.

Looking forward to Ashraf's calls on NFP.
Callum
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Mar 25, 2010 19:43
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
@Pipster - there's more RBA speech Aust morning and some minor economic data. RBA Governor may come a hawkish - let's see. Also, ASX 200 open is now likely to mimick the DJI rally and try and force itself to go above 5,000.

This could possibly push JPY lower, thus driving AUDJPY higher?? Even AUDUSD seems to have held itself up relatively well vs. EUR or GBP.

Looking at other JPY crosses for clues:
1.

* NZDJPY closed above 38.2% fib between 2007 high and 2009 low.
* NZDJPY broke the 61.8% fib between the Jan high and Feb low. Will it close above it today or this week?

2. CADJPY - let's see where it closes, but looks pretty strong for now.

3. Gold - I have read Ashraf's latest IMT on Gold. This might drive AUD lower but AUDJPY??

I am anxious to get Ashraf and others view on possible target (intermediate / short-term) on USDJPY and JPY crosses.

Callum
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Mar 25, 2010 16:42
In Thread: Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
@sallanne - I had shorted immediately at the time of the tweet. Shortly after, trade was in +ve, so I put a s/l at breakeven and went to sleep during early asia session. I woke up getting stopped at break even. I still think it was a was a good call - I could have put a better trailing stop. Thanks Ashraf for the call.
Callum
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Mar 24, 2010 22:43
In Thread: JPY
With USDJPY exploding above the 200 daily moving average, are the flood-gates open for Jan high?
Callum
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Mar 24, 2010 11:48
In Thread: EUR
We may have to wait for S&P and Moody's? Looks like PIGS are back! I even saw Dubai mention on CBNC - they interview the DB World CEO at closing bell. Sounds like plenty brewing for the sell-off to kick-off....
Callum
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Mar 19, 2010 19:50
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
@dhussey - AUD/USD usually gaps up on Monday (Sunday US) opens, so I wouldn't be surprised if AUDUSD tries to make a run for 92 in the morning. The only exception to this would be if China makes any releases over the weekend - they do that from time to time. The Aust morning economic calendar seems inconsequential. Personally, I would look for short opportunities with limits higher if possible on Monday/Tue.
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