Posts by "callum"

With cable making -170 pip move already, is it likely to re-test the recent low of around 1.5350 or at least extend to today's S3 (daily pivot) around 15362? Could retrace as much as 38/50% from today's high/low for fresh shorts? A fair bit of US data ahead ...

Now that AUD/USD broken the 89 levels, it seems to be lined up well with Gold 1102 levels. Yesterday AUD/USD was around 100 pips higher to around same levels to Gold. It will be interesting to now see what every $10 drop in Gold does do the AUD. It be interesting to see if RBA or otherwise, would have much ammo to bid it back to the 90 handle, or perhaps the PPI data from Eurozone could potentially provide some light prop into the low 89 levels?

@AVG, with EUR/USD moving into 1.37 handle and possibly eying 138, this should give AUD/USD further prop upwards well into the 90 handle. The AUD/USD 90 handle is going to be also a key psychological level. I am waiting for Fed Budget data later to see way it moves the USDX, otherwise, the following Asian trading session could bid this higher. ~CB

@PippedOff, I would love to learn more about the "Goldman Sachs", what is this about, and how exactly they do it. Do you have any blog, book (or considering writing a book)? I will surely buy it / pre-order it.

As for Gold correlations, indeed, late last year was classic when Gold rallied stronger than the AUD/USD. Approx mid-Q3 and early Q4 last year, even EUR rally harder than the AUD against the US. Even at Dubai Crisis announcement on the even of Thanks-Giving last year, AUD came off a lot vs Gold. But then again, some of the equity correlations with EUR / USD also have been off in Dec/Jan timeframe but it seems like they are starting to normalize.

As for job numbers, they have been great numbers for the bulk of the time and this market reaction isn't unusual, and of-late, these upside gains in the Asian sessions could quickly vanish either in EU or US trading sessions.

I hope everyone, including myself will make money on the current rally upwards on the AUD which also helps pick up on overnight interests or off-set against the shorts, and get ready to position on those shorts.

Callum Bir

@lilgeo , nice move, great to see you were already in the short ! I was expecting the usual Q&A from $Bernenki, the drop happened too quick for me to react as I didn't have my stop order placed in advance and chose not to chase it ...