Posts by "carlco"

ive argued this interest rate hike approach for years, i just don't understand why you would want to leave interest rates so low, japan has tried this for 10 years plus now and it simply doesnt work, i think pushing base rates up would perversely stimulate the economy, squeeze out deflation/staglation once and for all, push out speculators of an overvalued safe haven currency. The yen in world borrowing terms is virtually free money, how is that good for its economy?

exactly orange trader, hence a forum where posts could be edited would be nice :)
trying to keep posts concise always leaves the door open to lost in translation.

what i find worrying about the S&P500 is 5days of directionless trade, a reverse hammer followed by a doji , now today the futures arent looking like they want to test the 50day and look like hugging the bottom of the bollinger 20,2 ive got a big support line in @1071 which it bounced off nicely yesterday, my gut feeling is we are going to break to 1040, unfortunately i feel the market may try a move up to test 1120 again before the end of aug before that happens. For me a key level will be the 100ma closing in this friday on the current level.
Anyone agree?

VOTE:75-83

i dont know where its going to be!
Im staying out of the market and watching from the sidelines.
@vikas i wish people would stop going on about israel attacking iran, its not going to happen the USA has too much to lose.

usdcad isn't a X that i have paid any attention to this past year, as i like gbpusd and eurusd, but i think you're being too hard on yourself with bad calls on this ashraf, we are staring down the barrel of 3 year lows on the weekly chart 102-103 all through 2008, until that magic break higher on sept 28th 2008 and that level was a 10319 !it amazes me how the markets keep coming back to levels and revisiting key levels years later, this morning ive been reading reports of weak data out of the usa , and bearish oil, but i can't see this oil weakness lasting much longer , also the rest of the world seems to be turning in some moderate gains. My thinking is , if usa remains weak and the rest of the world gains that has to be good for oil prices and cad, if usa does start to pick up then that would mean less risk aversion so a weaker dollar and higher oil demands so a stronger cad ?
So im thinking and please anyone correct me if im way off here, it doesnt matter what happens aslong as we don't get a 'global' double dip, which is looking more and more unlikely, (im also thinking here that all the bad news has been built into the prices, born out with what happened to amazons share price on worse profits report last week, for example, the share bounced back within the day)
Also, (sorry im making this a novel) the bank stress tests in europe although laughable shows the banks in as bad a shape as we all suspected, which is good, atleast they arent any WORSE than we thought! is this yet to show up in price action. I think what im saying is although USA is in a hole that might take them the longest to crawl out of, barring a major default (california???lol...Spain???) this could be great for oil bulls and a usdcad short , Question wouldnt it be better to play CADUSD long AND cheaper ??? (because of interest charges???)..