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Posts by "cat0nip"
1999 Posts Total by "cat0nip":
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Posts by Anonymous "cat0nip":
Positive for Eur is to let those members of the common currency go bankrupt which are bankrupt and stop transfers. Could be monday after a further drop below 1.4 EURUSD could recover if Lipsky tells Merkel to shut up and to take lessons in basic arithmetics.
While technical analysis of relative price charts such as EUR/USD is utter nonsense ( can 1:1 be replaced with coin flipping) TA of a relative strength chart of EUR makes more sense.
This chart of EUR relative strength looks VERY bad by TA method.
Supports were broken on friday and next level indicates another 5% loss in relative strength.
Provided the relative strengths of USD and JPY remain unchanged, EURUSD will fall below 1.4
and EURJPY below 112 tomorrow.
Only scalping possible long term pos may go dead wrong.
a. hike margin
b. close credit spigot
Of course the fundamentals for gold remain intact... but not now. Very important is the continued drop in UST yields. Inflation is not a concern now. This is not supportive for gold.
There could be margin hikes for crude coming.
So what is the point? The FED wants UST to be bought. They may be able to reduce their
portfolio of UST. This is pro USD and anti gold ( and bad for stocks and commodities) .
I always watch russian stocks index realtime. Russian stocks are 100% USD hedge.
When this index continuously falls you can be 100% sure USDx will go up before it goes up.
And commodities will drop before they drop.
and Greece leaving Ezone is as well out of question as restructuring.
Of course Greece is as bankrupt as Ireland and Portugal... if they would follow given Greece exits a bank crash is inevitable. Thus the Greeks play just hardball with Merkel. That's all.
They want indefinite extensions and easening rates. And they will get it. Next Ireland will get it and Portugal will get then Spain and Italy will declare bankrupt and...
Merkel lost big. THIS is what could further weaken Euro. The biggest suporter a lame duck. But I think monday will bring a short lived relief rally. To about 1.45. Good for short.