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Posts by "catnip"

2150 Posts Total by "catnip":
2 Posts by member
catnip
(Frankfurt, Germany)
2148 Posts by Anonymous "catnip":
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 16, 2010 16:21
In Thread: USD
Watch US bond prices! The Euro's end could be very near.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 16, 2010 15:56
Ok AUD/USD short and USD/CAD long run well so does Gold short....the not chart analysis of the interdependence of bond yield vs currency vs indices works well, too. To the hell with charts.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 16, 2010 13:41
In Thread: EUR
Traders going along mainstream beware ... most main stream roads are dead end and one way.

April 15 (Bloomberg) -- The worst global financial crisis in 70 years arrived in Saint-Etienne this month, as embedded financial obligations began to blow up.

A bill came due for 1.18 million euros ($1.61 million) owed to Deutsche Bank AG under a contract that initially saved the French city money. The 800-year-old town refused to pay, dodging for now one of 10 derivatives so speculative no bank will buy them back, said Cedric Grail, the municipal finance director. They would cost about 100 million euros to cancel today, he said.

Its a joke that were in markets like this, said Grail, 38, from the 19th-century city hall fronted by an arched facade and the words Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite. Were playing the dollar against the Swiss franc until 2042.

Saint-Etienne is one of thousands of public authorities across Europe that tried to shave borrowing expenses by accepting derivatives deals whose risks they couldnt measure. They may be liable for billions of euros, according to the Bank of Italy and consulting and law firms in France and Germany. As global economies climb out of recession, the crisis is hitting Saint-Etienne in central France, Pforzheim in western Germany and Apulia, an Italian regional government on the Adriatic. They may pay for their bets into the next generation.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 16, 2010 12:56
In Thread: EUR
Yes yes
a IF there is an IMF bailout
b If so, if IMF provides not 15 billion but 150 billion.

If not a and not b then ECB is doomed - at least ECB couldn't follow FED if FED hikes ( or in any way tightens ECB cannot hike and cannot tighten )
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 16, 2010 12:25
In Thread: GBP
I took profit on EUR/GBP long today because I don't want to get caught in surprise by outcome of Athens conference. Although I do not expect anything but bla bla.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 16, 2010 11:52
In Thread: EUR
That will kill ECB because bond holders are European banks which have deposited Eur 178 billion of Greece bonds as securites at ECB. But ECB can only accept EUR denominated securities so ECB will have to write off EUR 178 billion.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 16, 2010 11:46
In Thread: GBP
Imo it is UK's debt structure that supports GBP- UK is not in need to refinance and if so the short term rate is cheap. I do not think election plays any role in determing value of GBP. It will however after election but not to a big degree. It could be as Soros thinks GBP will depreciate but even that doesn't mean to short GBP. because all currencies will co-depreciate with possible exception of commodity currencies but even that is not sure. These may plunge if PBOC hikes. I think the consequence of sovereign bond crisis is a one for all global currency and elimination of cash. All virtual/ electronic under full control of govt the clearinghouse belongs to govt. If someone should notice some strange
similarities: yes that is Marx economy.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 16, 2010 9:29
Nice post below. "My method" is, in a mathematical viewpoint, the determination of complexity of markets and decomposition of the total market into single particular markets. Complexity is not a word
it is a number, this number is a property of what is called structure in systems theory, and differential
topology. Structure is the totality of relations which are invariant to a class of transformations thus signals are given then when invariance is violated i.e. the market "changes".

Here is the post about German Chancellor Merkel a self proclaimed IQ bomb always at the brink of exploding with an outburst of maximally intelligent insight into everything and beyond:
Angela Merkel is a Chemist. In her doctoral thesis - entitled "Untersuchung des Mechanismus von Zerfallsreaktionen mit einfachem Bindungsbruch und Berechnung ihrer Geschwindigkeitskonstanten auf der Grundlage quantenchemischer und statistischer Methoden" - she demonstrated herself to be a thoroughgoing expert when it comes to analysing the speed of disintegration of chemical compounds once the bonds which hold them together are weakened. Unfortunately she is now having to apply all this acquired expertise and know-how in a determined attempt to avoid the break up and falling apart, not of a highly complex chemical substance, but of an even more complex economic and political one, and the bonds which are the focus of all her attention right now are not chemical, but financial and social.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 16, 2010 8:23
In Thread: USD
The next may not even be Portugal it could be Austria. Austria is the financial hub to Eastern Europe and Russia. The outstanding Eur denominated loans should exceed Gr debt by an order of magnitude.
My advice is get Madoff out of jail and make him ECB president and let the affair be handled by Madoff Dimon , and Blankfein. Let each one make say 10 billion that sums up to 30 billion and that will be THE CHEAPEST possible solution.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 16, 2010 8:17
In Thread: USD
This doesn't work. French and German banks have EUR 178 billion of Gr bonds which ECB has accepted as security.