Posts by "catnip"

Keep in mind the Gr bailout is not at all settled. If Greece is unable to raise funds and to roll over maturities it is not so that EU hastily pulls the wallet. No in that case it is due to decision by majority vote of all those independent parliaments, one by one. One says yes the other no the third maybe but if and only if...IMF feels they are pulling its leg... actually as some politicians slowly begin to realize it is a fuse of a bomb that will blow up the monetary union. EUR has some two weeks for merry playing around but then...
I have already opened a NOK account and a DKK account.

Just went AUD/USD short @.9351 and long USD/CAD @.99714 maybe a bit too early. Again short UST 10 y note. Note price / yield and DOW rally don't match. Expect stock rally to end this week.

Don't think so , at least not now. Look at the huge excess reserves banks are sitting on. All that liquidity
FED created sits there. Possibly some USD trillion. FED laments banks are not lending. In fact as the spreads tell, available credit shrinks. What would happen if banks would suddenly start lending? Inflation. What happens if the FED raises interest thus paying the banks more interest?
The banks won't lend. So what keeps the USD up? Recession. And deflation. It is all written well not in holy textbooks but in Uncle Scrooge comics. In order to keep value of fiat money up it must be stored in a money tank and stay there. Keep jobs scarce and payment low.
This is why I never trade indices. I know there has to be some balance or a sweet spot between deflation and inflation. Given the huge excess liquidity from quantitative easing sitting on bank balance sheets the scale clearly tilts to deflation and USDx consequently towards 85. Neither FED nor US Tsy could want a quick recovery they are planning recovery in a decade. USDx will keep weak vs commodity currencies as long as China piles up commodities. But not longer.

I am running EUR/NOK short since May 2009 with 700% up so far ( 100 lev) I would not short NOK vs SEK. However EUR/SEK short made me good profits a couple of times ( although EUR/CAD was the king of short). In terms of value I think to pair a relative strong NOK vs a weak makes always sense
but NOK and SEK are too equal in value. Norway has a high savings rate and very low unemployment
so even if oil gas nickel should drop NOK will stay strong.

said
saying about what?