Posts by "catnip"

I said EUR/USD may recover to 1.34 and so far it did. However I do NOT see any kind of bailout strategy so far it is all endless talk. The Greece problem is not Greece, it is unimportant. The big problems are
failed or just missing Eur zone common economy politics ( how could Greece Spain Portugal compete
with France and Germany ... with olives and red wine? )
the Maastricht and other treaties do not allow a bailout
so the focus is at the "constitution" of the Euro.
If there is a kind of qe ECB of G bonds the problem is still unsolved. Unless there is recovery of economy it will stay in focus.

If it is correct Chinese bill auctions had failed then PBOC fund rate is too low... a PBOC fund rate hike
is imo negative for commodities. And negative for stocks.

EW has a particualr problem due to its mathematical feature ( "fractal") : it cannot have a "begin" in the finite. Since I follow a system theoretical approach - the market is a non linear system with memory- EWs can be viewed as the memory of the market and thus is the market's response to a signal that is NOT in EW. The signal occurs outside of the market. I have checked a number of algorithmic trading systems using EW and they are over the long run not more accurate than flipping a coin. But EW can serve well to determine an exit.

I use covariance function matrices I am rather sure S&P and commodities except gold have seen their highs. "Rather" means 66%

Trichet announced to accept sov. bonds as securities if and only if EUR denominated in other words
might buy G bonds below market price ( commonly understood as QE) but wait and see....its all talk so far. EUR/USD may recover to 1.34