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Posts by "catnip"

2150 Posts Total by "catnip":
2 Posts by member
catnip
(Frankfurt, Germany)
2148 Posts by Anonymous "catnip":
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 7, 2010 7:25
In Thread: USD
I see only one issue: backwardation.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 7, 2010 7:23
In Thread: GBP
It appears massive transfer of EUR to GBP has propelled GBP. That may continue as the EU stance
re PIGS is as ridiculous as it can get.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 6, 2010 22:42
In Thread: USD
macrosam
this is certainly correct. However if the 10 y future drops this could be reflecting an oversupply of UST
or the expectation thereof. This is I think equivalent to expectation of rising yield. If it were a commodity future it were backwardation. I am wrong ?
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 6, 2010 22:26
In Thread: GBP
Ok. Here is a reason:

Tue Apr 6, 2010 3:07pm EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is considering allowing maturing Treasury bonds to roll off its portfolio as an alternative way to drain reserves from the banking system, according to minutes from its March meeting.

The move would mark a shift from the current policy of reinvesting the proceeds from government debt into new Treasury bonds as the old ones come due.

This would serve as an additional tool for removing the extraordinary stimulus the Fed injected into the banking system in response to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

"Redeeming all of its maturing Treasury holdings would significantly reduce the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet over coming years and hence could be helpful in limiting the need to use other reserve draining tool such as reverse repurchase agreements," the minutes said.

Many economists, including some key Fed officials, worry about whether the large amount of excess reserves now sloshing around the banking system will dampen the central bank's ability to tighten policy effectively.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 6, 2010 21:42
In Thread: GBP
Ok said
but WHY should I go long on GBPUSD? I see no reason for USDx drop but many for GBP weakness.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 6, 2010 21:39
In Thread: USD
I'm short on UST 10y price with a so called 100:1 turbo put. And I notice something strange. Yield and price move in opposite direction. but: the 10 y yield has retreated from 4% to 3.95% the nevertheless price continues to drop. Indeed futuresource.quote.com shows 10 y note futures drop. This can mean despite of whatever dovish statements a fund rate hike is expected. Also somewhat strange JPY rises vs USD.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 6, 2010 18:29
In Thread: GBP
Pipster
I don't use charts as source of entry/exit signals I work only with bond and credit market figures
and use a multivariated approach to determine values of currencies and pair weak and strong.
Now USD isn't as strong as calculated. But mostly I trust my approach I don't see much strength in GBP
Since I am a swing&scalp trader I am not much interested in perfect exit signals only in entry. 10% is better than 100% you'll be waiting for forever.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 6, 2010 13:50
In Thread: GBP
10y UK gilts 10 y UST spread is in favor of USD so i went short GBP/USD @1.5190
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 6, 2010 12:08
In Thread: GBP
I will short cable. As no news coming from FOMC re discount hike just therefore I do expect news on hike. Tomorrow auction of UST 10 y is a key event. Wait to see if cable crosses over 1.52
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 6, 2010 11:38
PIIGS will return to focus next week. Nothing has been actually tackled it's all phrases political small talk.