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Posts by "catnip"

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2150 Posts Total by "catnip":
2 Posts by member
catnip
(Frankfurt, Germany)
2148 Posts by Anonymous "catnip":
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catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 6, 2010 10:59
In Thread: USD
Tomorrow 10 y is going to be auctioned
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 6, 2010 10:16
In Thread: Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
Certainly equities will crash and USDx will rise to 86 or so and UST 10 y yield will drop. But what came out of FOMC? I see no news on that?
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 5, 2010 20:50
In Thread: GBP
GBP is 2y 10 y yield differential. UK has max of debt in 10 y 30 y securities and at present short term bonds UK can roll over into cheaper short term. I would not short GBP now but watch yield differentials.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 5, 2010 20:46
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
Well compare UST yield curve Jul 2008 and today... the recovery commodities and S&P rally is an excess liquidity rally ...if FED were more hawkish and mops up liquidity the rally will falter ... so what can they do? I assume US Tsy won't like rising yields as Treasury continues to auction a glut of bonds to fund a record budget deficit...and a lot of due bonds are about to be rolled over, too. The easiest
action si to verbally play down the recovery...because the worst that can happen in terms of govt securities is economical recovery if one is going to auction some more US$ trillons of debt.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 5, 2010 18:02
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
I am long now entry @1.0016 and going short Comex copper.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 5, 2010 17:41
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
My USD/CAD long entry is set at parity. I am also long UST 10 y year yield which just touched 4%.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 5, 2010 10:19
In Thread: EUR
PIIGS is not over. Support for G so far is just informal talk. EUR is doomed as there is and always has been only talk but not any kind of EURO zone common economy politics. AND the EUR countries together have the world's biggest administrative overhead. Would US still be around if it had to support
more than 50.000 politicians and more than 8 million govt officials ? AND another 15 million of those retired fed with incredibly fat pensions? I bet no and I'm sure l'll win.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 4, 2010 21:28
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
Officially FED withdraws from EQ mortgage securities so far USD 1.5 trillion. Could be that QE liquidity went into S&P and commodities. It remains to be seen what ths tightening means for commodity FX vs USD. Given the big UST auctions coming my guess is there should be more than lukewarm response
I think the commodity bubble is about to go bust. I am USD/CAD short and AUD/USD short and will re enter USD/JPY long.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 4, 2010 19:26
In Thread: USD
Discount rate hike may influence short term Tsy yield and if the spread is constant rise 10 y yield, too.
But that should add to USDx. I don't think CDS would rise. Interesting however is the spread of Tsy to corporate bonds. If corporate continue to "sell better" than Tsy AND the recovery hope does not come true then it could mean USDx to drop. I have a lot of US based friends. If their view is correct then
the recovery doesn't have legs it is still between lame and limping.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 4, 2010 10:21
In Thread: CHF
Ashraf
how could SNB intervene against EUR given SNB reserves are already 80% EUR?
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