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Posts by "daveo"
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512 Posts by Anonymous "daveo":
Its only more recently that silver has become more tradeable. Being more of an industrial metal than gold its character differs and gold has the advantage of being more of a safe haven so the correlations in gold can change which I like. Silver can make some horrible patterns sometimes whereas gold my favourite vehicle for clean analysis.
EWA rules were blatantly breached in their count with regard to wave overlap, no excuses whatsoever. The result was that while I was trading gold back up to the Dec 09 high at 1227 the EWI boys were calling short almost the entire way up. Not very clever, I would call it utterly incompetent.
My motto. "Get the Job Right First and the Money Will Follow" My experience from 33 yrs in engineering and 16 yrs in trading.
Be careful talking about hoarding the yellow metal itself for your own security reasons.
10% ROC p.a once experienced would be a dismal goal.
Not wishing to sound patronising ! First and only realistic target is to develop your edge to consistent b/e performance and that means "consistent". Never look back from there. gl.
First thing is no way would Ash trade opposite to his calls on direction. He not that kinda guy and this reminds me to welcome the departure of Lloyd Blanfein from GS. Only a rumour at mo but the world can do without his "god's work" with GS. Terrible example by the Superpower to all of mankind.
Ok, rant finished.
You might have missed one of Ashraf's IMT's yesterday talking about crossed currents for the usd, fairly exceptional day. We all get caught out in volatility sometimes and have to bounce back.
You should not be thinking of only trading one direction. The direction of $cad has been down since march 2009 and let's face it, which set of fundamental problems would you rather have, those of USA or those of Canada. No contest imho. Besides, Dr Bernanke is in full control of the DX for the time being and we have to ACCEPT it.
In the move down in stocks autumn 08 I was teaching using the ES (S&P500 futures). We were seeing 10 handle 3 min candles (equivalent to 100 dow points). Those types of conditions require one of two things. You stand aside and watch or you change your strategy to suit. The more volatile a mkt the more potentially dangerous to trade and the larger the losses when they occur.
I think you should look at 2 or 3 of the less volatile pairs like the nzd to create a trading portfolio mix.
To be honest about this, if you achieve a consistent break-even performance by end of year 3 you can consider that quite exceptional. You have to develop the mindset of starting a degree course with a new carreer in mind where the work experience is in stages, a little like a medic combining hospital experience with essential studies.
If the reply is non commital I suggest you email again addressed to Miner. He might refer you to Carolyn Boroden but she is much shorter term trader than you might like and she doesn't teach EWA even though she studied under Miner. She teaches symmetry but I could refer you to someone better for that who also studied under Miner same time as me.
At the end of the day (ghastly expression) you have to do the work yourself. Do the reading and the vids etc etc. Then find a mentor. No one else can do the study for you, sure you realise that. EWI are very bad news in my book and I know most EW gurus.
The point about that next fib # for gold is it is legitimate reversal level or reaction level and if mkt breaks the level then high probability it will continue on up. Its a level to be aware of and ideal for taking some off in a long position or getting the hell flat if price rejects.
If I were in your short trade I would not want to see a fresh high. That's how tight (mean) I work the mkts. Being generous means large losses when they occur.