Posts by "daveo"

:-)))

Said, what do you mean. Are you suggesting that rose is only cosmetic ?

Thanks for the tip Chloe, I will take a look at that.

Trend for CL is very definitely up but we have 50% ret of the 08 high to 09 low at 90.05 for monday ? The 61.8% ret comes in at 103.45. The 127.2% ext ret of last swing down on daily is at 90.96 or the 161.8% at 93.93. We have a volume HVN between those two levels to provide a high probability cluster of resistance. A few levels to watch

I just took a peek at seasonal trends and not very conclusive for the month of December. Winter demand for heating oil only one ingredient.

2000 down
2001 flat to down
2002 up
2003 up
2004 down
2005 up
2006 flat to down
2007 up
2008 down
2009 flat to up

Gunjack, Stockcharts.com do a pretty good service for starting with classical chart analysis which is probably the right place to start to catch all the basics. Both John Murphy and Arthur Hill provide regular intra week analysis with videos in the paid subscriber service. I think Arthur Hill is an especially good analyst although Murphy is the more famed. I think they both also run their own sites and services.

I have been through most methodologies including Gann. In the end I found my own stuff evolved with what I felt the most comfortable with but what I do does not necessarily suit everyone by any means. Looking back over the years what we (most traders) do is to research an enormous amount of "stuff" and discard about 98% of it to the bin. The remaining nuggets of pure gold are moulded into our very own trading arsenal. What Elder would call the 5 or 6 bullets in his clip.

I am an EW nut because it totally fascinates me. After practising it for 4 years in the 90's and tearing my hair out with the WRONG attitude I grew to hate it. I took a 3 year rest from EW but came back to it with a totally different attitude. If I were climbing my particular curve again I would study in the following order.

Classical chart analysis inc price action, candlesticks etc.
Basic grounding in EW patterns. (I chose Robert Miner of Dynamic Trading)
Fibonnaci retracements, extensions and projections (price and time) (Suggest Carolyn Boroden or Mark Braun)
Symmetry studies (Carolyn Boroden)
Return to EWA for deeper study and correct application of what you learnt with fibs and symmetry.
Markey Internals. (there are books on breadth and volume studies)
MP (Market Profile) Study of volume over time (Suggest Dalton for reasonably concise intro)
Intermarket analysis. Need I suggest someone for this ? !!!!!

All these studies can be integrated to providev a powerful methodology to suit your own individual trade plan. IMO the difference between an experienced trader who struggles to get past consistent break-even and an experienced trader who has become consistently profitable lies in trade management (and strict money management).

Fundamental analysis is notoriously unreliable because we are subject to surprises and the unknown so it makes a lot of sense for you to "manage" your trades using technicals. Whether you play 3 units or 5 units you need logical levels for lightening load in any given move on any given timeframe. You need a logical level for your stop loss placed in the market at time of entry. The fundamental bias can be aligned with a technical entry level and from theronin the trade is managed using technicals.

Hope this answers your question :-) and good trading to you.

I just noticed wide NYSE breadth divergence on the rally in stocks today versus yesterday. Even yesterday breadth declined from its high throughout the session