Posts by "emp"

Jamshed -

I couldn't resist commenting of some of your observations.

Firstly, let me state that I'm very far from being a "jobless day-trader."

My intent here is not to plug my own website, but suffice it to say you'll see my pic & data in an issue of Parade Magazine this month in their "What People Earn" annual issue. My understanding is Parade has a readership of about 71 million - so just a few more people will know about me - but millions already do.

That issue will indicate that I make 7-figures annually as a prognosticator - of different sorts.

For the past 32 years, I've been considered by many in the media as the best sports-betting handicapper around - covering every conceivable betting sport there is - as you can see on my site when you get around to looking at it. Just do a google search of my name when it becomes known to you.

Why do I bring this up? Certainly not self-aggrandizement. But let me tell you a commonality with approach of all the great sports-handicappers I've ever know: elegant simplicity.

I'm a good stock-picker. I'm a pretty decent forex-guy, as well. But, I'm an extraordinary sports handicapper because over the years I have determined, by analyzing literally thousands of variables, what given factors MOST influence the outcome of various sporting events.

And after decades of work, I quantified those variables by creating mathematical algorithms, which themselves might encompass no more than perhaps a dozen variables. And these formulae (and there's a different one for every sport I cover) create for me statistically-enhanced choices which I then sell to my clientele as plays - which they then proceed to bet on.

Perfect I'm not (I sound like Yoda, there). But I'm good at what I do, which is why I have thousands of clients worldwide.

The lesson I wish to impart? Whatever market you're trying to analyze: KISS - Keep it Simple, Stupid. In this case, simplicity is better. And the simpler a successful, replicable solution is, the more elegant that solution becomes.

In FX, you can get caught up with so, so many different things. I've mentioned that I'm not a forum person. When you pick football, basketball, baseball, hockey, soccer, etc plays for a living, when you win for people they expect that to happen if they have paid for the info. Ah, but the obverse? You're a living piece of garbage if you should lose for them - even short-term - and they stuff every available forum with those tidbits of info. So I don't read that crap.

But even here, in Ashraf's small FX forum, I see what you see: people who get caught up in what they think is a sure-fire (buy..or substitute the work "sell") RSI reading...or a screwy MACD...or any of the almost infinite number of technical-analysis indicators in use.

Obviously, a popular indicator will have some predictive use. Otherwise, it wouldn't have stood the test of time long enough to get popular.

But what most people who use them cannot fathom is that many of these indicators will give you diametrically opposite readings - one might yell BUY which simultaneously another screams SELL.

And, sadly, this often results in the uncomfortable state of cognitive dissonance - where two conflicting viewpoints try to assert control. People don't like this, so what they do is rationalize one of those viewpoints (in this case, the BUY indicators) over the other viewpoint (the indicators telling them to SELL).

The result of this, most of the time? The speculator loses his money. And he just can't comprehend why that was.

Rule: Do NOT fall in love with any given technical indicator and use that alone as your basis for a trade.

I've tried to apply my KISS approach from sports-handicapping to my FX ventures.

And what works for me may not work for you. Nor am I going to go into the specifics of what I've discovered the hard-way over the years: much trial and error losses...and then more losse..and then ultimately more gains then loses.

I almost solely use EMA's (exponential moving averages) - particularly 20, 50, 100, & 200-day lines -
applied to a daily candlestick chart.

Do the research yourself. LONG-TERM, see what happens when each of these EMA lines crosses above or below another EMA. Correlate your results. Make sure that there is replicability - that these things happen numerous times and not just once.

While all moving-averages, by their very nature, are lagging indicators (since they show what has already happened), this works for me.

I could tell you for almost any given cross-pair between two majors what happens when any 2 of the EMA lines cross over each other - in either direction, from below or above. But that's my own proprietary data.

This is in the EUR forum, because the trade I did in mid-January was short the EURUSD @ 1.42905
for $10,000 cash, using 50:1 le