Posts by "evanrowe"

Yeah tell me about it... it moves like a rollercoaster.

I think the fed and ECB are overstated in their effectiveness. It doesn't matter if milton friedman had an answer to the 30s writing in the 60s and 70s.. monetarism has never been tested against deflation. If there is a shrinking space of profitability, then you'll just end up with desired credit but no real borrowers. This will force the cash play and force down equities. If you don't have enough borrowers, it doesn't matter if you put rates at negative 3% if the loss on return is greater than that. This is why I think the interest rate narrative isn't a good explanation.

Steven, over the next few years, I expect full parity between dollar and euro as euro falls into the perils of decentralized infighting and the imperial strength of the dollar rises. After that, who knows, but I think that's a period that must be phased through. But I really need some help on my month to month understanding..

Said, I think we agree on many things, but there is some loss in translation. I do agree that emotions dominate reason or logic in human behavior. My thinking on how europe will move right is based on a variety of factors, the immigration debates being just one. It will be easier for rising european nationalists to appeal to nationalist nostalgia (creating anti-eu pressures) as well as targeting easier targets like workers with less social leverage... this can be offered as a false solution to the coming problems. Nobody knows the future, but that is my concern with the eurozone from a political and cultural standpoint.

Said: There might be, but I don't think it will help if they do it, and I don't think it will matter much either. I think the core of the ENTIRE economic problem right now is an inability of private investment to create enough space for enough real flesh and blood human beings to operate in. Without enough social roles, you will continue to increasingly see a stand off between an investor class looking to park capital in profitable investments, and everyone else looking for work. I think statism will be on the rise across the board. (comparatively, in the 30s, the same was true, whether under Nazis, Soviets, or New Deal). National state projects have the advantage of not needing to find profitability prior to investing. It can do it, however ineffectively or bumbling and wasteful, from the outside of a project to the inside, instead of how the private sector tends to work from the inside growing outward. I expect the U.S. to move left (believe it or not) but I expect EU to move right because of how EU elites have played the general population against immigrants.