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Posts by "geoorggge"
3 Posts by member
Geoorggge
(Vienna, Austria)
EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
UK Q1 GDP -0.3% QoQ and Germany +0.5% QoQ. For Germany the IFO "Business Expectations" (currently 100.9, slight expansion) or maybe the Markit Composite PMI (49.8, slight contraction) are both a lot better.
As for indicators you stated in the previous post that ZEW is a worse indicator than PMI (with which I agree), but you did not say that IFO and ZEW are both worse, that's what you claim now.
IFO is in fact a mixture of PMI industrial(now at 45) and services (currently at 52).
The services PMI of 52 gives more insights on local German conditions and they are effectively expanding, see also latest strong construction figures! However since China and the rest of Europe is slowing, the German exporters, strongly reflected in the industrial PMI of 45, are slowing. By the way, given the latest US trade balance, the US exporters seem to be even more slowing!
As consequence, Markit has created the Composite PMI and this indicator better corresponds to IFO. It stands at 49.6. Link: http://www.MarkitEconomics.com/MarkitFiles/Pages/ViewPressRelease.aspx?ID=9561
More and more Greeks will vote for the easy solution: Greece defaults and goes out of the Eurozone. In this case Greece will denominate its bonds in Drachme to the original FX rate of 2001 in a week-end because bonds are under Greek law. Then the Drachme will drop sharply and Greece will get rid of at least half of its debt. Private Greek companies will have problems because of their Euro debt under English law. Greek banks will be saved by the EU, other companies not. Like Argentina in 2001 Greece will suffer for 2 years. A global crisis will be avoided, because Greece GDP is not that relevant. Most Greek bonds will be in the hands of the ECB then. Greece and especially Greek tourism will strongly rebound with the cheap Drachme.