Posts by "ginger"

ratio ended at 74 today - we'll be on the way to 80 and beyond at this rate!

As all eyes are on Greece for now could we be about to learn of a much bigger problem elsewhere soon? Are we not now set-up perfectly for a black swan event? Interesting times...next couple of weeks I expect limited gains but potential for a sizeable sell-off followed by further sell-offs in the Summer.

A 100 pip recovery in the Euro in 30 mins - question is, is this sustainable through next week and beyond?

I couldn't find the Robert Prechter interview on CNBC yesterday but viewed it today. The aggressive fast money traders wouldn't let the guy finish any sentence what a bunch of jerks. He's basically advising that this is one of the best times to short the market and I think he's right. The pieces of the jigsaw are coming closer together. The catalyst for the fall in markets are all out there but the single biggest one is China.

Juno1
I've followed Bob Prechter for a while now. His timing seems to be off by a number of months if not years (although he did call the market bottom last March correctly) but to be fair in the current environment of a liquidity driven rally it is almost impossible to call the next market top as there is too much interference through loose monetary policy and money printing. Even so as mentioned below on a number of indicators the market is clearly very overbought - problem is it can continue to overshoot for some time killing all the shorts and taking the market higher and higher. His call on $ strength since Nov last year has been spot on though.

As far as deflation is concerened, I for one do hope we do get the deflation he is talking about but look at prices everywhere and they seem to be rising not falling. Again, this may be a short-term phenomenon before we do get deflation possibly caused by a collapse in China real-estate prices later this year.

The trouble is the more deflation we do seem to get the more govts will print so that ultimately holding cash will become a liability.
Ginger