Posts by "ginger"

I agree with you. Your copper short is a smart move - I've also joined you today and will add as and when copper goes up any further.

US equities seem to be wanting to push higher again before earnings season starts next week. It will be very interesting to see if we do get a pullback next week as earnings disappoint. This together with more bad news out of Greece could start the drip drip of market negative news.
Ratio now at 73.

The ratio is at 70 again

Catnip
Good luck with your copper short. I'm thinking of doing the same soon.
G

I'm trying to understand for myslef why BDI should fall from mid-March to now given economic activity is reported to be increasing around the world. The Baltic Dry Index indicates the real demand and supply for dry bulk cargo space - only those who have cargo to ship will buy space and anyone with the available space would supply it (because it's very costly to keep an idle ship) - hence it's not subject to speculation. Given this, what we have currently with the rise in commodity prices is pure speculation. In fact if we take the BDI at face value given the fall since mid March of some 20% commodity prices should be falling not rising as economic activity seems to have stalled again. There is a lot of news out of China about growth but chances are the numbers have been fabricated as is the norm there. Certainly Jim Chanos thinks China's a big bubble - some 60% of the economy is construction of high rise buildings which are non-productive.
At some point (may be 2/3 months max if not much sooner) economic reality will mean base metals such as copper will correct and trade much lower in line with true economic fundamentals.
Hence shorting base metals, especially copper in May/June may reap good returns.
...just my views - interested to hear what Ashraf and others on here think.