Posts by "ginger"

I'm amazed by the rapid fall in the VIX over the last few days - it's traded as low as 16.31 today, implying nothing to worry about. Also $ rise has had no effect on the US equity markets today as they continue moving higher.

Ratio now above 71 - how much higher can it go?

The ratio ended today just shy of 69.

What was interesting was that the VIX finished above its lows for the day at 16.91 which is still slightly above its Jan closing low of 16.86 (note: today's intra-day low was 16.52). With all the euphoria (based on loose government monetary and fiscal policy which will come to bite later on), I may be one of the only people here running against the tide but I'm a firm believer that there is another leg down coming soon based on Ashraf's analysis - I don't know the catalyst for this (may be black swan event or China raising rates) but the down legs are usually done under big volumes (unlike the recent up legs) and could wipe 200-300 points from the FTSE (bringing it close to its 50 day simple moving average) in a matter of 2/3 days and bring the VIX above 20 again... Just my thoughts - of course we can always keep going higher but then nothing goes up in a straight line and we're way overdue for a breather.

VIX down another 5% today as I write - now at 16.88 close to the Jan 10 lows. Ratio climbs relentlessly, now at 69 - surely this rise can't continue much longer

The ratio has now broken above 66 and bulls are in full command it seems - I was expecting a sell-off today in the S&P but may be the next few days (Friday? with options expiry) will be the start of a rise in the VIX towards 20 level and beyond (VIX only needs another 3% fall to be at its Jan 10 low of 16.9 - equates to S&P of c. 1170)

The S&P/VIX ratio is now above 65 again. The bulls say we'll have S&P above 1200 and bears say 1120. We'll soon find out. For 1200 to happen the ratio will probably break to 75-85 region - too high based on the charts...