Forum Posts by : helmut (Forum Member)

Helmut

Hannover, Germany

Posts: 24

13 years ago

Oct 2, 2011 21:25

In Thread: JPY

I repeat - there could be a breakout of the USD/JPY, maybe this is an carefully starting intervention of BOJ. Anyways I am positioned already for some weeks.

Helmut

Hannover, Germany

Posts: 24

13 years ago

Sep 30, 2011 16:28

In Thread: JPY

Could be that the JPY intervention starts, for two hours the JPY gets weaker. I have not found other reasons.

Helmut

Hannover, Germany

Posts: 24

13 years ago

Sep 25, 2011 15:13

In Thread: JPY

@fresbee, In the meantime until something is happening I enter long with every new low and specify a sell limit on the earlier position. With the swinging around 76/78 I can make sure that my position is in the money. If course all this with money management. For this trade I am ready to risk 5% of my FX trading money.

What I have seen last week that there is liquidity panic in the market which also brings down the Gold/Silver/Cooper. Looks like many positions getting liquidated from parties requiring cash. I observe a Deutsche Postbank floater ISIN: DE000A0DHUM0 which is now at 45% instead of 80%-100% which would be normal. This is a good indicator to show the liquify crunch.

The USD/JPY is still doing pretty good, USD and JPY booth are strong, anyways we have to wait.

Helmut

Hannover, Germany

Posts: 24

13 years ago

Sep 24, 2011 21:32

In Thread: JPY

@Xaron, linking the Yen to a fixed exchange rate would be one option to save the export industry. I believe the most important counter currency for the Japanese export is the USD. In the monthly chart, a proper USD/JPY target rate could be between 85 and 100. I learned from a Japanese company that they calculate their prices with 85, now we are at 10% below 85. This means an upside potential between 12% and 30%.

I am long USD/JPY with a pretty large amount, at 77,40 and 77,90 I have two additional long orders waiting to be executed when BOJ is ready to intervene. I have the existing USD/JPY positions without stops because when they intervene there can be heavy spikes to kick out others.

A stronger Yen will kill the J-Export industry, pretty much like in Switzerland. For this reason I believe there is upside potential. Being Long with FX has no daily rollover costs because interests rate in Japan is lower than in the US.

Gruss Helmut

Helmut

Hannover, Germany

Posts: 24

13 years ago

Sep 18, 2011 10:35

In Thread: EUR

@cat, the EU cannot introduce Eurobonds because the federal court decided two weeks ago that this is not possible with the current EU law. Another point is that the different countries don't agree to Eurobonds, so we don't get this signed off. Even with the current German CDU/CSU cabinet they don't find an agreement on this. We need to have a common consent within Germany and within the other EU countries, this is not going to happen.

This basically means bank bailout packages are needed in several countries to avoid a collapse. This will hurt countries like France, however I don't see other options.

I respect your opinion and have learned a lot from you, with the Eurobonds I believe you are a little bit to optimistic. For the equity markets the question is will there be a rally because equities are material assets and a greece default is priced in, or will be credit de-leveraging pull down the equity markets. For the USD it properly means a stronger dollar as the save-haven.

Nobody should take my assumptions to be correct, my market experience is not good enough to understand the interaction of all this.

Helmut

Hannover, Germany

Posts: 24

13 years ago

Sep 9, 2011 14:18

In Thread: EUR

@digi, the bier bikebicycle is in Frankfurt, catnip likes biking and he comes from Frankfurt.

Helmut

Hannover, Germany

Posts: 24

13 years ago

Sep 9, 2011 13:51

In Thread: JPY

Could be that we see here a rounding bottom in the 4hour chart. The weekly chart has two Doji with a final break to the upside this week. Also the 1h chart looks bullish. Anyways I not a charting expert but believe that Japan cannot live with a stronger Yen forever.
http://www.bilderload.com/daten/screenshot20110909at1414191H5AP.png

Helmut

Germany

Posted Anonymously

13 years ago

Sep 7, 2011 19:06

In Thread: JPY

A much weaker JPY, 10-20% less would be a superior stimulus for the Japanese economy, the export industry would benefit from it in a big way, lets watch if the BOJ follows Switzerland. I believe Japan has no problem in doing so because they own the JPY currency and cannot run out of money.

I will add two additional USD/JPY long orders at, 78,12 (above the EMA50) and another one at 78,80 to be prepared. A target could be 85.

Helmut

Hannover, Germany

Posts: 24

13 years ago

Sep 7, 2011 17:21

In Thread: JPY

givemethebill, yes I have one long position already and got another today. An additional option would be to place FX orders to step in automatically with further orders via a pyramid lets say every two cent. When it happens this will only take only minutes and orders must be on place.

Thank you for your opinion.

BTW: The up and down of the EUR/CHF the last weeks was my best CFD FX performance ever. Maybe it can happen a second time, and even better prepared.

Helmut

Hannover, Germany

Posts: 24

13 years ago

Sep 7, 2011 15:09

In Thread: JPY

@givemethebill, my understanding is that the USD/EUR is getting stronger due to the European debt crises. In return I believe there is more USD/JPY upside potential, may the BOJ turns on a turbo to weaken the JPY. Is this also your postion?

Posts by "helmut"