Forum Posts by : helmut (Forum Member)

Helmut

Hannover, Germany

Posts: 24

13 years ago

Sep 7, 2011 14:02

In Thread: EUR

The German Federal Constitutional Court decided today that the existing bailout packages for greece and the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF)/ESM are in accordance the the law and EU agreements.

However an automatism to pay for EU debt is not permitted. This means no Euro bronds unless German/EU law gets changed which is impossible. So the different countries must recapitalize their banks on their own. With this in mind the Euro cannot get anyware.

I joined yesterday the EUR/USD long as counter movem but I will close it quickly.

Helmut

Hannover, Germany

Posts: 24

13 years ago

Sep 6, 2011 9:48

In Thread: CHF

Wow, what a deal, i saw the initial move EUR/CHF to 1.1170, jumped on it and exited at 1.2013, my FXCM depot is now 10% higher.

Now I observe the CHF further, it will be good for a strong EUR/CHF short when the later this week.

Helmut

Germany

Posted Anonymously

13 years ago

Aug 29, 2011 21:30

In Thread: CHF

FXHandler, the last few Rappen CHF down I leave up to others, CH got done what they need for their economy. Now I watch out for a EUR/CHF short opportunity. There is still an open gap at 1.1084 and often a low/high gets tested a second time. A temporary stronger CHF will come thats for sure, I will watch out for cat's comments, he understands the market interaction pretty good.

PS: I am short on Silver today, my stop is 45 (end of day), target below 30

Helmut

Hannover, Germany

Posts: 24

13 years ago

Aug 29, 2011 10:08

In Thread: CHF

FXHandler, there are multiple reasons why to buy/hold MH, at present the salmon future is pretty down (seehttp://fishpool.eu), this is why MH stock is down, it offers a good entry now. They address the oversupply, if needed by producing a little bit less. The demand for the foot sector will not disappear while the debt crisis continues. An investment in a NOK based companies is also good to diversify your investments. MH is a a very strong dividend payer. The Fukushima radioactive contamination is more worse then communicated, it means that Japan must import way more fish in the long run.

BTW: I own NOK stocks of MH and Yara, for both companies I believe I can hold it for decades, better an Euro in a savings account.

You are from Norway, you should know all this!

Helmut

Hannover, Germany

Posts: 24

13 years ago

Aug 27, 2011 19:43

In Thread: CHF

@cat, thanks for the info.
BTW: As you know I own some Marine Harvest stocks, I increased my position significantly in believing that this business will survive whatever comes.

Helmut

Germany

Posted Anonymously

13 years ago

Aug 27, 2011 11:10

In Thread: CHF

@cat, if the SNB runs out of money why is this strengthens the CHF?

I agree, at present there is no action, however there is a strong CHF short trend for the last two weeks. Even Friday morning, during the DAX selloffs the CHF was not getting stronger. The 500 bln russian oligarchs deposits are higher than the CH BIP. Maybe you can explain in more detail why you expect a return the EUR/CHF parity.

Anyways if the direction changes, I change my position. I have taken the profit Friday and keep a a quarter of the original smaller position EUR/CHF long.

PS: I am still a beginner in the FX markets, I am just trading the CHF because it is logical to me that CH cannot work EUR:CHF one to one rate, this will kill the export industry.

Helmut

Hannover, Germany

Posts: 24

13 years ago

Aug 26, 2011 20:35

In Thread: CHF

looks like that cats EUR/CHF short have been grilled today, I was able to benefit from it by just jumping on the big move this afternoon. I am still confident that Switzerland has no other option, they need to get the CHF down, otherwise the CH export industry goes down.

I don't know how the discussed Euro/CHF binding should work, however they will not do this for 1.18, I believe 1.25 is needed to keep the export industry in business.

I stay long over the weekend, in case the push it again just before market close as last time.

Helmut

Hannover, Germany

Posts: 24

13 years ago

Aug 20, 2011 20:11

In Thread: EUR

A question from a beginner to the experts regarding the USD versus Euro for the next couple of years. My understanding is that the USD is the reserve currency and that Europe may not overcome the european debt crisis, once one or more EU countries collapse, this will have a domino effect for the entire banking system. On the other hand the US will likely to unwind QE1/Q2 which means there will be significant demand for the USD. Also the US cannot go bankrupt because their dept is in USD which they control.

With this situation in mind and catnips recommendation to keep USD cash is it time now to get swap Euros into USD and keep in cash?

Is a Euro breakout as the charts may show it substantial or do you assume a much stronger greenback for the long run.

Thank you for your opinion/discussions.

Posts by "helmut"