Ashraf, I wish I maintained my original short position but have carried forward about 1/3 and have been opportunistically adding and scalping around the core position. I do anticipate 1.28 and from a draconian outcome perspective (admittedly unlikely), I am holding out for parity with the USD. I suspect the same for the GBP but the recent rally in GBP/EUR has thrown off my timing but I have re-entered recently.
I very often agree with Ashraf's analysis and it always makes me think about factors I had not previously considered. We are truly fortunate to be able to learn from Ashraf.
jamshed, I've been short the euro since 1.5050 though initially I was short a handful of contracts as a hedge against my gold long. I wanted to own gold futures just not denominated in dollars as the USD broke through its downtrendline and began this anticipated rally we're seeing to this day. Needless to say, even with the correction in gold, I've come out ahead by a decent margin and had added to those gains since closing out my gold position about a month ago. I've probably made more over that stretch than you have in the past year combined, but that's not he point.
The point is this is a forum where we share ideas, concerns, observations, and analysis and learn together, whether it be from each other, from Ashraf, or from the lessons the market teaches on a daily basis.
I'm also a professional institutional trade in derivatives and interest rates space with also exposure to supra/sovereign bonds. I think you don't give this forum and those who follow Ashraf enough credit.
I wish I could attach my own charts. I was not surprised to see a USD sell off at 82.00 as it would have been a nice round resistance number. I was prepared to see USD sell off to 80.65 if necessary, but previous resistance of 80.85 now looks to be support. I think 82.00 will be retested and broken and that USD could see 86.00-87.00 eventually. That does not mean it will not sell-off in between that time but as long as the uptrend line remains in tact, I see this occurring.
The USD bounced off previous resistance @ 80.85 now looks to retest 82.00 and perhaps challenge 83.00. The uptrend line is still clearly intact (from Dec 2009) but we shall see.
The composition of the numbers is what matters, not the headline itself. More jobs from the census and govt. were expected = more padding was expected. Private job gains were higher than anticipated, i.e. that source of gain comprises a higher % of the number than anticipated. HOWEVER, the private gains includes the snowstorm impact from Feb so that does temper this a bit. Overall the number is at least what was expected in terms of meaningful jobs added.
Try publishing this in the UK weekend papers: Traders bet BankofEngland will raise rates to 6.25% --highest since 1… https://t.co/GWXrTEAk4R(1 year ago)
Poor start to a slow market day as Ezone PMIs disappoint. Im still keeping an eye on the rare (-2%) USD-GOLD combo,… https://t.co/UyRzWsRbs7(1 year ago)
-5% YTD is not good, while -7% from the year highs can be tough. Gold traders have their eyes fixated on this for n… https://t.co/NV5UMKsfNo(1 year ago)
ما وراء هبوط الدولار مع الذهب و من منهما يتمكن الارتداد؟
موعدنا الآن في غرفة شركة إكس أم لجلسة الأسواق
https://t.co/Y7tD0RxCS2
@XM_COM (1 year ago)
Jobless claims > 300k before next FOMC meeting would be ideal for Fed to make up for any CPI upside surprise (1 year ago)
"Cook & Eat at Home" scheme may come next to defeat UK inflation... (1 year ago)
Earlier in the week gold selloff was attributed to smaller than exp China EASING. Metal is now holding v well despi… https://t.co/ZW9cmXTPWW(1 year ago)
I very often agree with Ashraf's analysis and it always makes me think about factors I had not previously considered. We are truly fortunate to be able to learn from Ashraf.
The point is this is a forum where we share ideas, concerns, observations, and analysis and learn together, whether it be from each other, from Ashraf, or from the lessons the market teaches on a daily basis.
I'm also a professional institutional trade in derivatives and interest rates space with also exposure to supra/sovereign bonds. I think you don't give this forum and those who follow Ashraf enough credit.