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Posts by "montmorency"

678 Posts Total by "montmorency":
604 Posts by member
montmorency
(Abingdon, United Kingdom)
74 Posts by Anonymous "montmorency":
montmorency
UK
Posted Anonymously
10 years ago
Feb 16, 2011 18:10
In Thread: USD
@Catnip: You have praised "Dr Ben" here in the past. You might appreciate this article, if you have not already seen it:
https://www.mcssl.com/content/166063/CC/021611_CC_final.pdf

(You might need to have signed up for their free newsletter before being able to see it. A google on the title, "What if Ben is right and the doom-and-gloom crowd is wrong?", might possibly pull up a copy.

(There is a plug for their services at the end, which can be ignored, but there is genuine content ahead of that).
montmorency
UK
Posted Anonymously
10 years ago
Feb 7, 2011 2:12
In Thread: EUR
@SUBWAY90: I don't know what you are trying to achieve with this personal vendetta against Catnip, but you are now becoming very boring. If Ashraf is reading this, I hope that he considers banning you for your persistent negativeness. Catnip makes a positive contribution to this forum. I have yet to see one from you. If Ashraf is not reading this, then I shall email him and request that he consider banning you. Some forums have an "ignore" facility - this one doesn't, but from now on, you are on my virtual "ignore" list.

montmorency
UK
Posted Anonymously
10 years ago
Feb 2, 2011 15:41
In Thread: USD
@Catnip: So (tying in neatly to another subject we recently discussed) could it apply to the strength of a single currency, which is only one variable? (although that's perhaps a false picture, since it's relative to all the other currencies, rather than just one other, as in a pair)?

montmorency
UK
Posted Anonymously
10 years ago
Jan 31, 2011 0:48
In Thread: USD
@Catnip: re: Reichstag: I thought it had never been proved that the NSDAP started the fire, and that the likely truth was the guy who was blamed actually did it, but he was a bit of a nut, and a loner, and not part of a communist plot, BUT it played right into the NSDAP's hands. AH was nothing if not an opportunist. According to Wikipedia: "The responsibility for the Reichstag fire remains an ongoing topic of debate and research."

As for the CIA on the other hand, I think their fingers have been in quite a few pies, some discovered, some yet to be discovered. Ultimately, it is essential that the USA's man gets in in Egypt (whoever it may turn out to be). They didn't handle the succession (from the Shah) very well in Iran, and we are living with the consequences to this day. Same could happen in Egypt. The law of unintended consequences.
montmorency
UK
Posted Anonymously
10 years ago
Jan 31, 2011 0:26
In Thread: EUR
@Catnip in reply to your message of: January 29, 2011 09:47 GMT:

Many thanks Catnip. I have recently obtained and briefly tried a free CSM which depends on data from an MT4 broker, which happens to be a market maker. (I don't have access to interbank data :-( ).
I guess this is not the same as having the professional tool, but it's better than nothing.

One possible use of this, as I have read, is to spot a change from risk aversion to risk appetite, for example. Also to draw your attention to changes across the market, which may alert you to "news" that you had not spotted before. Quicker than looking at all the relevant charts. Early days using it for me, so I'll see how it goes.

Thanks again.

montmorency
UK
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Jul 25, 2010 19:47
In Thread: EUR
@Catnip: Thanks. I share your caution as to whether it will get that high or not. Will we have a Monday morning jump I wonder. - Mutual Fund Monday or whatever.
montmorency
UK
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Jul 16, 2010 19:20
In Thread: EUR
Yet another Euro theory (admittedly it's ZH...):
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/eur-shortage-follows-hot-heels-pervasive-usd-lack


It does seem to chime in with a few things Catnip has referred to in the past (I believe).

montmorency
UK
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Jul 16, 2010 9:31
In Thread: EUR
The "China Manipulating" ties in with the "Asian Central Bank buying" rumour mentioned by FXstreet.
Not sure if the timing tallies exactly though.

Looking on the daily chart, the turn in the market was after the low of 7th June, before the "Yuan Depeg" announcement. Perhaps there were other factors that started the turn, like bad US data, Euroland manoeuvring, or perhaps China was just buying Euros at that point.

Also, between 21st-30th June, the upward swing seemed to have faltered, fooling some of us into believing the long downward trend had resumed. Subsequently, the big upmoves (to date) happened on the 1st July, 13th July and 15th July, with not much in the way of retracement in between.
montmorency
UK
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Jul 15, 2010 17:45
In Thread: EUR
EUR/USD: Not seen any more on the intervention rumour, but it could be (or speculation on a massive scale). I can't see that the US news is so bad, or the Spanish bond news or whatever else from Euroland is so good, as to justify a ~200 pip rally.
montmorency
UK
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Jul 15, 2010 11:13
In Thread: EUR
@Coach, @Ashraf, @Forum:

You are all right, of course. I have always assumed responsibility for my own trades. How can it be otherwise? But trends, and more importantly trend changes are easy to spot...in hindsight. And when the fundamentals don't really appear to have changed....well, one can be caught off-guard. That's where money-management and all those other good things come into importance...to limit your risk and losses.

Clearly market sentiment changed regarding the USD, what with a series of bad US data, plus Europe at least appearing to get to grips with sovereign debt.

It is clear as crystal (now) that the EUR/USD market changed around 7th June. Kudos to those who either anticipated this, or spotted it early. Not that many, if postings here are anything to go by.


Well, looking forward, I see that an FXstreet analyst is saying that if the weekly close is above 1.28, then another round of short-covering may take place. I guess then that 1.30 would be relatively easily achievable.