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263 Posts Total by "nzvik":
225 Posts by member
nzvik
(Auckland, New Zealand)
38 Posts by Anonymous "nzvik":
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nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Jan 14, 2010 2:09
In Thread: EUR Trade Index 18-Year Chart
Mont - appears to be working now, however I am getting uncomfortable with my EUR long - market is broadly stuck between 1.4460 and 530 if it does not blast past 1.4600 before the ECB rate decision tonight - we could have a mini reversal. but still not the environment to short unless you want scalp around
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Jan 14, 2010 2:01
In Thread: EUR Trade Index 18-Year Chart
Ashraf

With the strong jobs out of australia - do you think the RBA could raise rates by 50 basis points on Feb 2

thanks
vik
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Jan 14, 2010 1:56
In Thread: EUR Trade Index 18-Year Chart
pippedoff - that was my post of bearish USD which Ashraf disagreed with - and here is original clarification give for it :

""Ashraf

bias is to the downside for USD. Even GBP USD cannot be pushed down to 1.6 and as I write is back above 1.61 - but lets disregard this as noise.

earnings may not be a game changer this quarter as I expect results to be around expectations, and we have already started seen sizeable decoupling of the USDX from Equities, the inverse co-relation has been fragile for the last 6 weeks or so.
the game changer is the NFP which after a loss of 85k - may help keep QE and low rates for an extended time. till the fed makes some sort of definitive announcement on a timeline - the market will assume extended to mean indefinite. historically the fed does not talk of raising rates when employment is at 10%.

Fundamentals aside - the price momentum since NFP and a couple of days before that has been up for eurusd. the upside i think is high - 1.47 thru to 1.5. till price momentum remains upward i see no reason to be short. whether the top for the time being is 1.4620 or 1.48 - i am not very sure, but i would not advise anyone to short this yet.
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Jan 14, 2010 0:41
In Thread: EUR Trade Index 18-Year Chart
we "might" a get a retracement to 9265 on aud - before heading towards 94 by the time europe opens
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Jan 14, 2010 0:37
In Thread: EUR Trade Index 18-Year Chart
AUD jobs up 35k+ thats better than the 32k - last 3 months average
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Jan 13, 2010 23:38
In Thread: EUR Trade Index 18-Year Chart
Ashraf

Last three months average job gain is 32k, the forecast is just 10K - an easy number to beat and force a rally to 94.

last month the forecast was +5k and the actual was +32k. However, AUDUSD rallied about 80 points over the day before coming back in the next 2 days. But do remember in early Dec we were in a USD bull phase - now it appears we are not - so a a good beat could take it to 94 or more.
we will know in the next 55 mins

cheers
vik
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Jan 13, 2010 23:18
In Thread: EUR Trade Index 18-Year Chart
spec has been calling for some sort of USD rally since Aug 09. be mindful - spec is long term player - trading over quarterly and yearly time frames unlike most of us here playing with hours, days and at most a week.
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Jan 13, 2010 18:36
In Thread: EUR Trade Index 18-Year Chart
@pippedoff

what you call manipulation is simply the market
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Jan 12, 2010 10:35
In Thread: Don't Forget the Yen
@pippedoff

GBP hits 1.6150 before 1.6050 -
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Jan 12, 2010 6:30
In Thread: Don't Forget the Yen
disclosure to forum related to previous post :

i am long eurusd from 1.4420, stop now at b/e. T1 : 1.4574. T2 :1.4680, T3 : 1.4790

1.4440 is now support for today according to my indicators.
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