EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
How to improve your decision--makingh between Nasdaq100 and SPX by watching technicals in bond yields - Details in video description.
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
View Hot-Chart..
imf contributed - maybe - but this all looks very cyclical. around the end of most months the big money sells off - books profit. in the first 10 days of the month - money comes back - takes it right up - then all the amateurs start to come in - by then it is coming towards the end of the month and the sell off starts again - and you start hearing on cnbc about gloom and doom. prices are driven down at the start of the new month as the spooked amateurs start selling - and the big boys buy it. its almost been cyclical since April - excluding the slightly longer correction in June.
the s&p chart shows it better - but on this forum i can't find it - EURUSD correlates pretty much with it.
volume on the broad based Russell 3000 has been identical over the last couple of days as has been at the start of every cyclical rally. all those jokers on TV talking of low volume need to realise - volume going down is mostly higher than volume going up as rally's build over more days than pull backs.
money is easy and cheap - they will probably come in with another stimulus to keep every one happy.
and as you can see oil seems to be stalled in the 70s which is good and will help the rally further, as oil rallies tend to spook quite some investors
if I were following prechter - I would be short equities - he has been calling for a huge tumble from mid august (s&p 950) to go down all the way to 400
Will stand aside at this stage.
CHF has been very weak today, USDCHF gained 100 pips and had a range today of 150 pips - ATR is about 88 pips, so a big move.
Yen was also weak - but not as weak as CHF - USDJPY has a range today of only about 70 pips - and the move up today was only about 15 pips. the ATR is at 85 - so not much of a move.
I will wait now for a break above 91.5 to go long, may take a few days or more. Going short is more tricky so will not be looking for a short position in the next 2 to 3 weeks.
I will be interested in USDJPY if it breaks 92.50 by atleast 15 pips.
Could be getting ready for a bounce to kill the GBP shorts again as happened 2 weeks back. keeps everyone confused - is the 400 pip drop on friday merely a correction in the 1000 pip move up and the uptrend will continue now, or was the 1000 pip bounce the correction in the down trend from early Aug and we go lower now.
Equities tumble and the dollar strengthens against all except GBP. I thought GBP was the weakest out of all !!
Good luck to whoever is trading GBP and its crosses. GBP currently is not for the amateurs, so I will stay away and let the pros play it for the time being.
what do you think caused the 1000 pip jump from 1.57 to 1.67 in 10 days ? was it a reduction in QE or a potential increase in interest rates ? if you can explain that it would be great for my and the forums understanding.
markets have been overbought for the last 4 months !!
I only trade breakouts. AUDUSD looks like going higher and higher. I am useless at predicting whether one should jump now onto the trend or plan for a pullback. If I had to trade this pair only - then I would bet on going long on a minor pullback, trying to short this is far too risky based on the trend of 6 months.
The pair presented two very clear breakout opportunities on 4th Sept and 6th Oct - I missed both.
Currently I am long CHFJPY from 89.80. If it clears 90.65 and then 91.50 - then I am looking to take profits at 93.
However, Ashraf keeps warning of Swiss intervention on thursdays - lets see if I survive tomorrow or get stopped out.
Vik
Short - on a clear break below 9072. This may happen today or could take a full week or more - as their is a H&S forming (daily charts) provided there is a rally in the next few days upto 9300, but not beyond. If 9072 is broken then on further breaks of key support (8980, 8840, 8695) I will keep adding to my short.
Long - I am less confident of getting into a long position - but it would be only on a clear break of 9400. However, the ideal scenario to go long would be for a move up to 9400 followed by a move down to 9250 and then a final clean breach of 9400 . This would then be a good position to enter long. We then have resistance at 9512 which if broken the pair could head to 9800.
Spec is right about the extreme positioning of traders against the dollar (excluding GBP). Following is positioning as per COT data for 13th Oct (the last one released) - % of non-commercial contracts that are long :
JPY - 75.1%
EUR - 68.7%
CHF - 84.0%
CAD - 88.6%
AUD - 89.2%
NZD - 91.5%
and
GBP - 11.6%
Good Luck.
Asad, a lot of the fundamental theories work with a reasonably long time horizon (6 months+)
Even if the S&P tops - oil can keep going higher. The S&P topped in Q4 2007, Oil did not top till Q3 2008 - so lagged quite a lot.
But in dropping - things catch up very fast - in fact oil hit a bottom in Q4 2008 while the S&P did so in Q1 09. So while going up oil lagged by 3 quarters while going down Oil led by a quarter. As with most markets if you look at the same place you found cheese last time, you are unlikely to find it.
between 75 and 95 should not impact any growth.
A number of Jap companies go under with a strong Yen. See the weekly charts - a downtrend appears intact even with the current strength, though I doubt the Japanese will allow the Yen to drop to 87 again.