EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
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GBPUSD is a tricky one to call - movement is large and in opposite directions over the last few days so in my opinion a dangerous play - therefore similar impact on GBP crosses.
On Aug 5 GBP peaked at 1.7040. On that day EURUSD was at 1.4440.
Now GBP is at 1.6260 - still 740 pips below its Aug 5 peak while EURUSD has moved to 1.93 nearly 500 pips above its Aug5 level.
If GBP is going to play catch up (it may not) you can guess where its headed. The move today is 2 times its ATR - more than 300 pips.
We could get a pull back though.
GBPJPY looks headed up - helped by GBP strength and Yen weakness - double whammy.
Tasha, AUD looks like a morning correction - this is coming back. Lets see it it breaks 92.30. AUD has a pretty strong correlation with Gold which is down today - read this before u trade more commodity currencieshttp://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/06/CommodityCurrencies.asp
The GBP bounce came - a little later than I thought - currently at 1.6170 ! lets see if it holds today (doubtful) as it is already beyond its Daily ATR after a move of 200 pips today. has moved nearly 500 pips up in the last 3 days
If it holds above 1.6125 today - then more gains could be due as it plays catch up. i not trading this one at this stage, as it appears very volatile and unpredictable - 500 pip reversal in three days !
whoever was on the right side of this move, sure did well.
Vik
Looking for 83.50 but now with tighter stops.
The first breakout was a 40 day break out. Now after breaching 82.1 this has become a 60 day breakout - even more powerful.
In my opinion breakouts are the most powerful and certain indicators for a clear move, far stronger than chart patterns or candlesticks. However, each one to their own, whatever works for you.
Fundamentally, Aussie will strengthen further and watch for increased Yen weakness. I don't for a minute believe the Japanese are not concerned about a strong Yen - those brave statements coming out of Tokyo last month , are just statements - behind the scenes they will be intervening to weaken the Yen.
Watch USDJPY if it breaks above 90.50 (17 day break out) and then 92.50 (35 day breakout) - the uptrend would have started then. 87 will not happen on the yen - in my opinion - but I have been wrong a number of times.
CADJPY is also clearly off its downtrend - I am watching for a clear break of 88.35 to go long, probably 5 days away. Before that need to research any potential intervention by the Canadians.
Good Luck.
Most of the crowd on CNBC is talking their book (or as you say trying to get in at lower prices)
You've just got to hear the PIMCO crowd rubbishing the market - what else can you expect - they sell bonds, and CNBC is almost obliged to give them a fair say as PIMCO does spend a fair amount of advertising dollars with them - and could possibly have negotiated some "editorial" (non advertising) air time.
did not get into gbp long (thankfully) - needed it to bounce above 1.5860 - which it did not in the asian session. will probably go short if cable bounces to 1.58.
so historically still cheap.
bounce in the short term cause nearly everyone who wants to be short already is. only place left to go is up. though this does not always happen, so will play it with tight stops.
UK economy is weak - but keep looking at the FTSE - continues to make new highs - 5500+ possibly in the next month.
earning season should be good - the comparative quarter was weak and estimates are very low.
the financials dragged the market down - and they will the pull the market up. watch the options market on the major financials - call options for nov. expiry are large lots - institutional buyers are positioned for a substantial spike in the next 4 to 6 weeks.
but as we know - they can all be wrong. so play it smart.
You are right that the net short contracts on sterling increased 30%.
Of the 87K contracts on sterling 75K (86%) are short. To me that looks like an extreme net short position - a substantial bounce could be on the way. and i bet since the COT data (Oct 6) the shorts would have increased further
the bounce from 1.5730 today could take us back to 1.6+
likewise on CAD - the number of contracts net long doubled over the last week (88% are net long) - again quite extreme.
vik
good luck
Just relax and enjoy your vacation. Some people obviously assume this is a trade signal website.
I enjoy reading and then using your analysis and thoughts on the market. I see your ideas and thoughts as something for me to understand and then decide for myself how I want to trade depending on my situation and already open positions.
People who are looking just for trade signals without understanding the thinking behind them should move on - there are a number of websites which will be happy to take your money and simply give you an entry and exit and you may still loose money.
Please continue the education, I want to learn how to fish not just eat fish !