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Posts by "qiman"

248 Posts Total by "qiman":
228 Posts by member
Qiman
(United States)
20 Posts by Anonymous "qiman":
Qiman
United States
Posts: 237
14 years ago
Jun 3, 2010 20:52
BTW, the article below also mentioned these important facts:

"But Hoenig is hardly alone. Earlier Thursday, Dennis Lockhart, the president of the Atlanta Fed Bank, said "the time is approaching" for higher interest rates. He stressed that the Fed might have to move even if "unacceptable levels of unemployment" exist.

And late last week, Jeffrey Lacker said he was growing uncomfortable with the Fed's statement that conditions will require exceptionally low rates for an extended period."
Qiman
United States
Posts: 237
14 years ago
Jun 3, 2010 20:28
The Fed's most visible hawk, Thomas Hoenig, the president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve bank, gave a speech laying out his preferred upward path for short-term interest rates that would have the federal funds rate rise from near-zero to 1% by the end of summer.

But Hoenig didn't stop there, detailing the next phases to get the funds rate to 4.5% in an orderly manner.


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/drumbeat-for-fed-rate-hike-gets-louder-2010-06-03

Qiman
United States
Posts: 237
14 years ago
May 27, 2010 12:59
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The president of the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank said Wednesday that he was growing less comfortable with the central bank's "extended period" language in its policy statement, suggesting that he is leaning toward wanting to raise short-term interest rates.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-lacker-moving-away-from-consensus-wording-2010-05-26
Qiman
United States
Posts: 237
14 years ago
May 26, 2010 19:03
It most certainly is NOT sensationalism to pose this question, I've been posing it to myself over the last year! And though I have much education in international economics and international relations, I could see it going any number of ways, partially depending on the international situation. In other words, if there is severe international tension, say with a blow up in the Middle East or Far East or an energy crisis, this might cause the Euro zone to pull together more tightly, just as an arguing wife and husband pull together when a dangerous external threat appears. But I will be surprised if the monetary union survives in its current form, something will have to change. The biggest danger to European citizens is that the power of the ruling class/bureaucrats will become even stronger in order to hold it all together. If it were left up to a democratic vote in each country, starting with Germany, well . . .
Qiman
United States
Posts: 237
14 years ago
May 20, 2010 13:41
In Thread: EUR
Yes, pre market for US is very dangerous, and the Euro could do just about anything. A good day to make lots of money IF you catch the right wave in the right direction!
Qiman
United States
Posts: 237
14 years ago
May 20, 2010 11:11
In Thread: EUR
Good arrticle in the wall street journal:

"So far during the euro's months-long descent, attention has been focused on hedge-fund selling of European assets but central banks and large managers have a much-larger influence on foreign-exchange markets. Even if they don't dump euro assets, a mere pause in their buying could weigh heavily on the currency..."

"South Korea's central bank, which has about $270 billion in foreign-currency reserves, among the biggest in the world, said this month that the euro zone's sovereign debt problems make the euro, used by 16 nations, less attractive as a reserve currency. Iran's central bank chief this week said that country may rethink its reserves, which the Central Intelligence Agency estimates around $81 billion. And Russia, with $400 billion in foreign-currency reserves, said it shifted its mix of reserves away from the euro last year."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704691304575254683361456058.html?mod=mktw
Qiman
New Mexico , United States
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
May 20, 2010 2:17
Thanks so much for all your hard work on this excellent write-up, Ashraf!

Since the cheaper Euro makes exports more competitive, and with Germany especially being such an export machine, how much countervailing pressure is there by industry groups to keep the Euro low in order to further improve the export performances?

Also, I have really noticed that occasionally silver trades like a precious metal/gold proxy, while most days the focus is on its industrial uses, and then it falls or rises with the broader market. Have you ever seen any repeatable and tradeable pattern vis-a-vis this back and forth focus from precious metal to industrial metal? It seems rather random to me, but with your years of experience perhaps there is some trick up your sleeve?
Qiman
United States
Posts: 237
14 years ago
May 11, 2010 1:39

Shale Gas Will Rock the World-Wall Street Journal

"We've always known the potential of shale; we just didn't have the technology to get to it at a low enough cost. Now new techniques have driven down the price tagand set the stage for shale gas to become what will be the game-changing resource of the decade.

I have been studying the energy markets for 30 years, and I am convinced that shale gas will revolutionize the industryand change the worldin the coming decades. It will prevent the rise of any new cartels. It will alter geopolitics. And it will slow the transition to renewable energy."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303491304575187880596301668.html?mod=WSJ_hp_mostpop_read
Qiman
United States
Posts: 237
14 years ago
May 10, 2010 23:26
In Thread: EUR
Euro Rally May Prove Short-Lived on Rates, Asset-Purchase Bets


It will probably decline toward $1.20, according to UBS AG and Barclays Plc, ranked by Euromoney Institutional Investor Plc as the worlds second- and third-largest currency traders. Schneider Foreign Exchange, the third-most-accurate forecaster of the euro against the dollar in the first quarter, also cut its prediction.

Traders are betting the currency will resume its decline as Europes economic recovery trails behind that in the U.S., prompting the European Central Bank to keep its main refinancing rate at 1 percent this year while the Federal Reserve starts raising rates. The ECBs decision to buy bonds may prompt investors to question its independence and demand a higher risk or credibility premium, Kenneth Broux, a senior market economist at Lloyds Banking Group Plc in London, wrote in a client note.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=apEs5KHZq620&pos=3
Qiman
United States
Posts: 237
14 years ago
May 10, 2010 1:17
In Thread: EUR
Yes, quite aware they are not a part of the Euro! Read this article regarding this issue:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/7696870/British-taxpayers-ordered-to-bail-out-euro.html