Posts by "qiman"

Excellent article in NY Times: German Calls for Austerity Have Europe Grumbling

"But some argue that Berlin is pressing too hard, and that the regions new fixation on debt has created a cult of austerity that could make it harder to recover from the slump. Drastic budget cuts, if carried out as promised, could set off deflation...."
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/18/world/europe/18euro.html?hpw

@RRose--regarding gold. We don't always know why. When I started trading in the mid-90s I was very concerned with understanding why, now I focus more on actual price movement. The why can be exceedingly complex at times, so many energetic inputs. Perhaps in this situation short-term holders of gold have been happy to sell into any small rally, having made out quite well on yesterday's rally. In any case, not enough buyers have come into the market today to overwhelm the sellers. Not enough traders believed there was substantial potential for the price to rise, or they would have piled in once again. Might go up tomorrow for little apparent reason, but Momentum in gold can stop suddenly and consolidate for days or weeks. In addition, in the short term there can be more randomness in price movement than most traders would like to admit. Some traders make money off of random movement, but it is rare. Just one more reason 90% of traders lose money.

@ said

Regarding nat gas and Pickens. I agree with him 100% that we have an incredible opportunity in the US to radically reduce oil dependance with the new methods of capturing nat gas. What I don't know is if the leadership of this country will grasp the vision in time and make it a top national priority. It would create many jobs as well. If the gov gets behind it, the nat gas stocks will certainly explode.

Which is related to your other question--oil demand in the developing markets is tending towards deceleration with better fuel economy, etc. But there is so much oil growth demand in the developing world, hard to say which will win out. The abiotic theory of the Russians is very interesting. And Brazil has an amazing biofuel infrastructure, and now new deep water discoveries--it will be a major energy player in time. Iraq could make a major shift in supply as production comes back online. But the key again is timing. In the short-term I suspect military situations and hostilities could easily create another major oil spike before too long. Iran and the straight of Hormuz as just one example.

Regarding his short, very interesting info, thanks! Timing is everything-- I prefer to short only once I see a clear trend break, especially using the TF. Not many traders are good at picking exact tops or bottoms, I aim towards capturing a nice chunk out of the middle of a trend.

@said: Pretty big topic, but from my perspective we are in the middle of a massive shift in the balance of power, where both the Euro and Dollar in the next few years will likely face major difficulties, or even sooner. The US has just about bankrupted itself with endless wars and charity to the banksters, and the EU was built on a shaky foundation. Both have major structural problems in too many area to mention. The dollar is the least ugly of major currencies--for now! You mentioned 5 years. I personally am holding some physical gold and silver in light of the massive QE around the globe, which will eventually create inflation, but only when the velocity of money increases. Could be deflation first. Five years is a long time in this market, but I like the PMs at the end of that period as an investment and an insurance policy against the printing presses.

As far as nations, I believe Brazil is gaining much momentum as a power while the developed economies stumble and fumble, India as well. Russia has done little to change its long term prospects. China and the US are just about certain to clash in a major way.

We are about to enter more volatile and dangerous times. As traders we should be able to make a alot of money from these energies--taking advantage of the chaos instead of being its victim. But only if we can flow with the trends and set our biases aside quickly!