"I don't think rates will start rising until the first quarter of 2012, but when they do, I think they will go up at a fairly chunky pace," said Alan Clarke, economist at BNP Paribas.
Mr Clarke is forecasting a rise of two percentage points overall in 2012, which would take rates up to 2.5pc by the end of that year.
Sir John Gieve, the former Bank of England deputy governor, said last month that he expected interest rates to rise at a quicker pace.
A widely quoted fear index is set for its largest percentage August rise in more than 10 years as equity markets slump on fears the economy is slipping back into recession.
Renewed economic uncertainty is testing Americans generation-long love affair with the stock market.
Investors withdrew a staggering $33.12 billion from domestic stock market mutual funds in the first seven months of this year, according to the Investment Company Institute, the mutual fund industry trade group. Now many are choosing investments they deem safer, like bonds.
If that pace continues, more money will be pulled out of these mutual funds in 2010 than in any year since the 1980s, with the exception of 2008, when the global financial crisis peaked.
Here is some more about our Friend Cuprum, this is another bullish article. I personally have found copper pretty tricky to trace, how about you? If you do well at it, any tips for the rest of us?
HSBC's research, which looked at correlation between a range of financial instruments over the last two decades, found that high correlations have tended to accompany high levels of volatility and vice versa. But correlations have remained high in recent months even as volatility declined, suggesting that a structural change is taking place in the markets, they said.
Analysts were also weighing up the likelihood of a hung parliament, as seen following British parliamentary elections earlier this year, forcing the main parties to bring in some of the Australian Parliament's handful of minor-party members.
The odds of such an outcome -- not seen since in Australia since 1940 -- were increasingly likely, recent surveys show. A Sydney-based poll conducted at the start of the week predicted a hung parliament -- reversing its reading of a comfortable victory for Labor five days earlier.
This is a fine article regarding the recent high correlation between the S and P and the price of oil:
Crude oil is now influenced more by the stock market than by its own inventory levels or demand patterns. (Something I have said many times) Lately, that lockstep has reached an extreme, with the correlation between crude oil and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock Index hovering around 70%, doubling the average of 34% since 2008. http://uk.ibtimes.com/articles/20100816/energy-report-monday-august-16.htm
An interesting article about Germany's economic improvement:
Defying Others, Germany Finds Economic Success
"Germanys partners have cajoled, begged and demanded that the government in Berlin encourage more robust consumer spending, to combat imbalances among the countries that use the euro currency. But Ms. Wiblishauser said she was saving all she could, worried that the public pension system she was paying into might not be there for her when she retired.
And she found the prospect of more bailouts for heavily indebted European governments, like this years contentious rescue package for Greece, deeply distasteful. Like many Germans, Ms. Wiblishauser said she was having a hard time seeing the benefits the country received from being a member of the European Union.
Try publishing this in the UK weekend papers: Traders bet BankofEngland will raise rates to 6.25% --highest since 1… https://t.co/GWXrTEAk4R(10 months ago)
Poor start to a slow market day as Ezone PMIs disappoint. Im still keeping an eye on the rare (-2%) USD-GOLD combo,… https://t.co/UyRzWsRbs7(10 months ago)
-5% YTD is not good, while -7% from the year highs can be tough. Gold traders have their eyes fixated on this for n… https://t.co/NV5UMKsfNo(10 months ago)
ما وراء هبوط الدولار مع الذهب و من منهما يتمكن الارتداد؟
موعدنا الآن في غرفة شركة إكس أم لجلسة الأسواق
https://t.co/Y7tD0RxCS2
@XM_COM (10 months ago)
Jobless claims > 300k before next FOMC meeting would be ideal for Fed to make up for any CPI upside surprise (10 months ago)
"Cook & Eat at Home" scheme may come next to defeat UK inflation... (10 months ago)
Earlier in the week gold selloff was attributed to smaller than exp China EASING. Metal is now holding v well despi… https://t.co/ZW9cmXTPWW(10 months ago)
تجنب الخطأ الشائع المتمثل في خلط مؤشرات الناسداك وداوجونز و الاس ان بي وإليكم كيفية تفاعله بشكل مختلف مع تذبذبات في عوائد السندات ليست كل مؤشرات الأسهم متشابهة. شاهد الفيديو
How to improve your decision--makingh between Nasdaq100 and SPX by watching technicals in bond yields -Details in video description.
Latest Hot-Chart - Apr 09
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
View Hot-Chart..
Mr Clarke is forecasting a rise of two percentage points overall in 2012, which would take rates up to 2.5pc by the end of that year.
Sir John Gieve, the former Bank of England deputy governor, said last month that he expected interest rates to rise at a quicker pace.
"I am expecting a recovery when that is strongly established I'd expect rates to start rising faster than the market currently expects. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see interest rates at 2.5pc a year from now," he said.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/7982303/Warning-of-sharp-interest-rate-rise-in-2012.html
The CBOE Market Volatility Index is up 15.8% for the month through Monday's close, according to FactSet Research
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/vix-notches-biggest-august-rise-in-over-a-decade-2010-08-31
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Kirtley_Sam/aug272010.html
Investors withdrew a staggering $33.12 billion from domestic stock market mutual funds in the first seven months of this year, according to the Investment Company Institute, the mutual fund industry trade group. Now many are choosing investments they deem safer, like bonds.
If that pace continues, more money will be pulled out of these mutual funds in 2010 than in any year since the 1980s, with the exception of 2008, when the global financial crisis peaked.
Small investors are losing their appetite for risk, a Credit Suisse analyst, Doug Cliggott, said in a report to investors on Friday. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38803088/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/
Copper at $10,000 Says Credit Suisse
We still think that copper will reach $10,000 a ton by 2012 and relatively simple supply-demand analysis supports this.
http://agmetalminer.com/2010/08/19/copper-at-10000-says-credit-suisse/
HSBC's research, which looked at correlation between a range of financial instruments over the last two decades, found that high correlations have tended to accompany high levels of volatility and vice versa. But correlations have remained high in recent months even as volatility declined, suggesting that a structural change is taking place in the markets, they said.
In fact, correlations are the strongest they have been at any time over the past 20 years, according to HSBC. And a "correlation index" put together by the researchers shows a clear upward trend over that period. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/risk-driven-trade-shows-no-signs-of-fading-2010-08-20
The odds of such an outcome -- not seen since in Australia since 1940 -- were increasingly likely, recent surveys show. A Sydney-based poll conducted at the start of the week predicted a hung parliament -- reversing its reading of a comfortable victory for Labor five days earlier.
IG Market's Weston said such an outcome would put the Australian dollar under renewed selling pressure.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/australia-election-to-impact-miners-aussie-dollar-2010-08-19?dist=beforebell
Crude oil is now influenced more by the stock market than by its own inventory levels or demand patterns. (Something I have said many times) Lately, that lockstep has reached an extreme, with the correlation between crude oil and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock Index hovering around 70%, doubling the average of 34% since 2008.
http://uk.ibtimes.com/articles/20100816/energy-report-monday-august-16.htm
Defying Others, Germany Finds Economic Success
"Germanys partners have cajoled, begged and demanded that the government in Berlin encourage more robust consumer spending, to combat imbalances among the countries that use the euro currency. But Ms. Wiblishauser said she was saving all she could, worried that the public pension system she was paying into might not be there for her when she retired.
And she found the prospect of more bailouts for heavily indebted European governments, like this years contentious rescue package for Greece, deeply distasteful. Like many Germans, Ms. Wiblishauser said she was having a hard time seeing the benefits the country received from being a member of the European Union.
I would really like it if we were autarkic, like the Swiss, she said."
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/14/world/europe/14germany.html?_r=1&hp