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Posts by "qin"

482 Posts Total by "qin":
475 Posts by member
Qin
(Jonkoping, Sweden)
7 Posts by Anonymous "qin":
Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
15 years ago
Sep 4, 2009 0:58
FX,
Be patient......I know that you have been waiting for big drop for days......I checked some Japanese traders comment, they want to short USD/YEN.....but they said they want to see how market react on the report tomorrow, they are not short Yen side.......but they are waiting now.....

I don't have any idea on NOK/Yen.....I even don't have the trading pare on DBFX.......I have been avoiding to trade on Yen for 2 months......it is very unpredictable.....I am sorry........if I am not sure, I can't give you advice........

I believe that stock market will drop in near term, I think tomorrow is the profits taking day, If not. I will wait to next week......

Good luck!!

Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
15 years ago
Sep 4, 2009 0:28
asad, everyone.....
I am always taking seriously when I comment on this blog......I don't want everyone lose money because of me.......
I have so many losing money experience....and being wiped out once.......I know the feeling about it.....

I will post on this blog when I entry the market and also I will post the size of my positions......if I am wrong, we can learn something from my failure...........if I am right, please bless me.....haha......

Good luck!!! everyone!!! let make a fortune........if we are lucky enough and study hard enough......
Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
15 years ago
Sep 4, 2009 0:17
I guess tomorrow's report will trigger some profits taking.....if I am right, natural gas will not rise soon.......I mean tomorrow.........

There is some manipulation on the natural gas.......to be honesty, I don't have the positions now.....I closed it at 2.8........only 10 cents profits........ the nov contract and oct contract is 1 dollar gap......it is very tricky........I guess I will long it when there is a clear signal for me..........I think it will go to 6 next year......If i long at 3......still I can double the money.........right??

I am waiting now......I guess FX will give me more profits......I am a very new guy on commodities.....just studying about it....and doing some old fashion research about supply and demand.......

the supply will drop about 5%, but demand will up to 10%...........the big players are buying natural gas stocks......but they are shorting on future..........I am trying to figure it out.........
Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
15 years ago
Sep 4, 2009 0:06
asad. I am not buying here....

I want to wait to next week.....
Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
15 years ago
Sep 3, 2009 22:52
Some strange thing happened in Japan......The guy doesn't want to be the new prime minster and he let another elder leader to take his place.....
Will it give some negative news to Yen....I don't know.....let watch......personally, I like Hatoyama to be the new prime minister......
It is too difficult to understand Japanese, they have too deep thoughts.......
Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
15 years ago
Sep 3, 2009 22:46
hey, everyone
I closed my position on USD/NOK today with some profits. I am feeling that the market will have some correction in near term, but I don't think it will be huge influence to FX market, specially to USD. USD will not rally so much on risk aversion.

About tomorrow's report, I think market will try to take some profits first before the report, then after the report I think market will go down a little bit more, if the number is neutral. If I am right on it, USD will rise a little bit more tomorrow......I will short USD on its rally.

Good luck!!
Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
15 years ago
Sep 3, 2009 10:23
Steven Blyth,
I used to study religious and philosophy in Japan...my major is Christian Theology and philosophy..haha....i don't think people will like it.....haha......but I studied economy and FX trade by myself.......I like FX....because I always can learn new things from it.....and making some money if I am study hard and lucky enough......

I always read many traders thinking, and bloomberg new and CNBC, just like you........but I am a very skeptic person.......I only believe half of the news or comment.......maybe less then half........

I will post when I entry the market again......good luck!!
Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
15 years ago
Sep 3, 2009 10:13
I booked my profits now......good day.....

If you watch market carefully, you may see there is not so much movement on FX in US time.....maybe traders still on vacation.....

I think there will be another pull back in the market.......looking for chance to short USD/NOK again.....
Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
15 years ago
Sep 3, 2009 10:06
Steven Blyth
I believe stock market has been peak out and made new high for this year......the selling off will not be so aggressive like last year......Let say, 10% drop, 5% up...it is very possible then heavily drop everyday, on my view.....if it happens as I expected, we won't see USD rally very powerful......making USD rally, need some kind of panic news.......if everyone knows there is a correction, it won't be panic new........

If you ask everyone in the market, they will say there will be correction this month, it is a very tricky thing.....if everyone believe so, usually it won't happen.......but still we need to be careful......
If you find a bubble, try to join with it, but be sure you know it is a bubble, when it bust, you always can get out more quickly then the people who don't know.......
Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
15 years ago
Sep 3, 2009 9:06
FXHandler, I didn't mean that oil production cost........but I remember Soros said that marginal cost for produce one barrel of oil is at 70........
But I know that to keep those OPEC countries' economy stay alive and stable, oil should stay above 60....otherwise their economy will get in trouble........
I am not expert on commodities, I don't trade on commodities so often, but I am learning on it.........


my position USD/NOK......it is in green now.......last night shanghai index was going up a lot........
I am not going to add more short positions today.......I may add more positions next week........I have to learn how to be patient............maybe I should go to beach today.......