Posts by "qingyu"

shoe manufacturer in qingdao, double star, boss name wanghai.

this guy said in front of zhurongji, "i loss one usd by export one shoe, and will keep doing this. i am famous man in the world. "

thus, you really find a idiot partner.

and i have to mention tsingtao beer had poor qulity control in 80-90s. hope you wouldnt blind by drink it.

can frog just be quiet?

House arrest
By Lex

Will the latest increase in Chinas reserve requirement ratio put a brake on property prices? Dont count on it. In a perverse way, every increase in the RRR is an incentive to load up on real estate.

To understand why, take a few steps back. In the past, the Peoples Bank soaked up liquidity caused by currency intervention by issuing sterilisation bills. From 2008 onwards, though, as the yield the bank paid on these liabilities started to rise above what it was earning on its assets mostly US Treasuries this became an expensive business. So the PBoC started locking up more bank deposits through the RRR: Fridays increase, to 19 per cent, was the seventh since January last year. On its own terms, this has been a successful strategy. As Commerzbank notes, liquidity created through foreign exchange intervention since 2004 has tracked closely the liquidity absorbed via bill issuance and RRR rises.

But consider the implications for potential homebuyers. If bank credit growth is managed primarily through quotas, rather than the price of money, then every increase in the RRR amounts to an assurance that interest rates will not rise materially. In other words, yes, you can afford that second or third mortgage.

Does this matter? Since August 2005, when the official sale price data series for 70 cities began, the average yearly rise has been 7 per cent, well below the annual increase of about 12 per cent in urban disposable incomes. But the average is misleading. It masks the growing inequalities that show up in the consistent failure to hit targets for public housing development, the rise in tactical divorces to bypass one-home-per-family restrictions, and plummeting government approval ratings.

Premier Wen Jiabao has implied that house prices, up for 19 straight months, are unreasonable. In reality, continued rises are eminently reasonable: abstract notions of tightened liquidity are just not as effective as real hits to personal finances.

gunjack, thank you. its just a joke. i use both analysis.

am i good tealeaf reader? cat?

;)

last time after 2 years recovery, spx500 pullback from 1220 to 1140, around 20 points below previous high.

this time previous high at 1220, so we may see 1180 agian.