Posts by "shane"

INGBalek
I am short aswell from 1.5275 sl 1.53255 above the last time we crossed 1.53 and if taken out that means the market will try for 1.5370 and than i can have a better chance to reevaluate price behavior and also will have the opportunity to short at a much better price. Trading 1.53 gbp i believe we should keep tight sl. Why are you risking 100+ pips. SL in this case is not to avoid any loss but to reenter at a better price.thats my take on the short gbp as GBP is respecting 1.53 we should take advantage.


one thing i can think of why you keeping large sl is that you are afraid of a impulsive move i have following points for you to scratch your mind and think.
1. Is 1.53 a solid resistance level.
2. Can i reenter again if hit at 1.5325 on the resumption of down trend. as all i loose is 40 pips max for a good 200 pips risk reward ratio and the best chance is i may get 40 pips extra by entering short at 1.5370 with 1.54 stops. Total risk is 70 pips and not 120 pips in addition i am giving you a chance to get 40 extra pips.

said
The consolidation you are talking about is similiar to what happened bw 1.63 and 1.59 before we had a big downside in gbp. certainly in fx you cant rule out anything but i still favour the downside. i will be more sure of an uptrend if the consolidation was at 1.48 to 1.50 but consolidation at the top of the present range means more downside chances than upside.
one more thing even if you are right i will wait till i get a weekly close above 1.53 for going long and in the process if you earn a 100 pips more i will give that to you but i dont agree taking a chance till we have a technical break out. its good to think ahead of the fx market but in way we have seen a bottom in gbp and with elections in may you sure will see a quick downside soon.

I agree with said and catnip in there own ways, because if you look in a little larger prospect going short is not recommended, guys have a look at weekly and monthly charts. We had the biggest gbp rally last week this speaks of buying interest developing at 1.48 at the same time i believe we may see two more legs down or atleast one more towards 1.44. I personally feel that its better to buy at 1.48 and 1.44 rather than shorting at 1.53 or 1.48. however it doesnot mean that you should not short it at these levels but i think we are due for a rebound soon (couple of weeks)and it might get ugly for shorts.

Lolz yields, first year in trading so much to learn. seasonal high yields means higher usdjpy. 94.20 is the go ahead signal. nothing in way till 97 as ashraf said. But who knows. i have a short audjpy position 84.50 85 , 85.80 planning to hedge it directly to save my margin. holding it is no problem except that we dont know what may happen in this market safer bet is to take profits even if its going against you and you dont get rollover fees plus its better to hold long audjpy as a carrytrade. anyways still need to see 87.50 blown away. Any brilliant ideas will help.