Posts by "speculator"

may i add i think sterling will weaken further for now as house prices reversed an upward trend. this is very important ineed but of course one of many factors. should next month recored a small loss sterling is in greater trouble going forward.

passive or active fund. passive will try to replicate a japan index for example and is much cheaper to run but active is more expensive as fund manager works out best stock pickings.

cable: charts are showing retest of 2009 lows. shortly after greece issues die off, uk will be next under spotlight and speculators will find faults with the currency. coupled with US economic strength and political risk in uk, cable will drift downards. fair value for cable is early 150s so speculative flows could push down around 10% easily.

sterling needs some rally for it to drop again like a stone its only normal. the only concern i have if a very large majority of the market remains ultra sterling bearish then sterling could rally for a while as there would be technically little room for further selling. This is what normally happens when a security has bottomed in value. Therefore sterling needs some positive data temporarily to suck some bulls in but guys remember sterling on paper is still the riskiest out of the bad bunch.

Cable plunge unbelievable despite strongish stocks. The large players seem to be offloading the stuff like theres no tomorrow. The situation in the near future may resemble 1985 where US was relatively more attractive for investment and growth. if this is the case we may see a significant move down into end of year. but its too soon to talk. Mervyn king wants a weak pound! he will get it. $1.40 is my Q2 target.