Posts by "speculator"

the bottom for USDx was 2008 we are more likely to see strength in the index for a quite a while at least based on my macroeconomic analysis.

as we enter H2 doubts over global recovery will increase sending dollar quite a bit higher. traders and investors probably over reacted to the more positive news last quarter and this is likely to lead to risk reallocation.

cougr yes one decade may not be adequate as i would conisder that is medium term. look into the 1990s and you will agree with me.

1996 to 2000 the USDX went up nicely and so did crude.

in the early - mid 90s oil was not a good hedge for the dollar and the correlation was not negative throughout. so what makes you so confident that this relationship will not return?

ok thanks cougr, a good point anout usdx not being able to maintain 200dma.

extrapolating trends especially longer ones will not always give you good insight as past performance is not a good indicator especially in this increasingly complex world we live in. for example, how may banks forecasted the dollar to collapse last year as US was in recession?

the highs of 2000 will not be surpassed so soon as one could argue that it will take many years to achieve if we are in a secular bull market.

i appreciate all the debt monetisation and deficits this is a dollar negative i dont disagree.

but i am still waiting for a brief answer as to WHY the demand for euro,pound and yen (components of USDx) will increase leading to a fall in USDX (everything else equal, ideally) if emerging economies do well and the rest of the world does not. is this a commodity priced linked concept?

ok we are getting more economical here.

but if you assume BRICS do well and USA dont:

CA will fall = less dollar excesses to mop up

looking on a supply/demand basis if the dollar will sell off into BRICS currencies due to capital inflows away from the dollar then why would the dollar weaken against non-BRICS. Investors wont be buying the Euro or Pound directly.