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Posts by "stationdealer"
750 Posts Total by "stationdealer":
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Posts by Anonymous "stationdealer":
Obviously month end and there will be the usual expectation of European central bank buying of the EUR/GBP cross related to UK s payment to EU. Will be interesting to see whether this can make a dent in the well-defined downtrend. Cross presently at .8132, marginally firmer from North American close Tuesday down around .8090.
BOE Posen: Only Too Happy To Vote for Rate Hike if Justified
BOE Posen: Confident Tighter Policy Would End Inflation Creep
BOE Posen: Monetary Policy Set to Avoid Recession Too Loose If It Works
BOE Posen: Not Confident UK Economy Outturn Will be Favorable
BOE Posen: Some Key Determinants for UK outside MPC Remit
BOE Posen: UK Economy Tentatively in Recovery State
Difficult to attribute rise in inflation to one-off factors
Inflation creep is result of policy being set too loose to prevent downside risks
UK is poised between 2 outcomes given coming austerity in Europe, recovery outside
Happy to raise rates if get to positive outcomde
Not confident well get to that favourable situation, outlook set internationally
A slow creep in CPI expectations no reason to tighten policy if forecast argues against
UK economy tentatively in recovery state, still subject to switching to recession
S&P Case Shiller home price index rises 3.8% y/y as US subsidy comes to an end
US consumer confidence plunges to 52.9 in June from 62.7 in May
Obama, Bernanke meet on economy; Bernanke said only Its important for us to take that global perspective as we discuss the economy. Obama puts on brave face
BOEs Fisher warns of premature tightening; deflation risk not dead
ECBs Nowotny: Low inflation gives ECB room for maneuver on monetary policy; hint of willingness to ease from member of hard-euro block?
Obama presses for carbon tax despite economic weakness
S&P closes at 2010 low of 1041, down 3.1%; US 10 year notes close at 2.95%, lowest in 14 months
Oil falls 2.70 to $75.55; CRM falls 2.75%
China growth jitters, European funding concerns and growing evidence of a US double-dip sent risk into a tailspin today.
EUR/USD fell as low as 1.2150 before central bank and real money buying slowed the slide. After a false break out Friday a test of 1.2150 was inevitable, will it stop here? Well good question but I guess a general weakness seen for now cause for concern if any mid-term there is growing demand and on reforms-side seen some stability. Today's rebounds were limited to the 1.2210/15 area. Small stops cluster at 1.2225 with stops also below 1.2150. Remember, if you see a clear break of 1.2240 then we know that the up side has begun. Euro lead the drop after clear selling noted in the Asian session, accelerated by European session as bond spread widened on risk to European Sovereigns to default. This was evident in Euro facing all time lows vs JYP and CHF, while some recent lows across some other currencies. With the recent CB repayments I expect to gain some temporary strength.
EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF continued their declines. Dovish comments from MPC member Fisher (see above) helped cool the GBP rally. Month-end demand for the cross is likely tomorrow as the UK makes a payment to the EU. I have made clear blunder by not opening an important email concerning EURCHF on 15th when I went long but I had recieved a recommendation for sell. It went something like...that a high-profile US hedge fund advisory firm that the market pays such attention to opined that the the SNB would tolerate a CHF as strong as 1.30 Shortly there after the SNB announced they were halting their failed intervention strategy and EUR/CHF went into freefall.We are now about 1 trading day from the 1.300 level at the present pace. Will the SNB show its hand? Inquiring minds want to know.. What do you think? Despite EUR/CHF slipped to 1.3167 as dip buyers continue to be laid to waste.
USD/JPY fell to 88.29 on risk aversion and ends at 88.53. Low US yields contributed to the JPY rally.Can expect some side way movement to diminsh the momentum. Japanese banks were peddling 88/98 DNTs a few weeks ago. We would not be surprised if they were doing that in response to interest from China in the same structure. Using that thesis, Is imagine there will be some protective buying on the approach of 88.00 along with some heavy sales from market making banks trying to knock-out the structures so they can pocket the premium without any longer having any risk..USD/JPY trades at 88.35, the lowest levels since the flash crash in early May. The low that day was 87.95. My personal recommendation this is a easy trade to buy from 88 level and hold till 94.
AUD and CAD were shed throughout the session as global growth fears reached new depths today after the US consumer confidence data. A plunge of that magnitude was eye-opening for the market and suggests consumers will put their wallets away in the months ahead, slowing the already tenuous US recovery. AUD fell to 0.8475 and USD/CAD reached 1.0574. Monday's double-digit losses in gold showed little in the way of reversal signs early this morning as news that [revised] Conference Board calculations indicate a possible slowdown underway in the economy of the now largest exporter globally: China. The corrected leading Chinese economic index figure showed an April gain of just 0.3% as compared to the previously reported 1.7% rise. The news undermined speculative appetite and dented a number of stock indices, commodities, and boosted the Japanese yen. That just the one that got away. That said with rising uncertainty and lack clearer reforms from gov's I expect to hold both Oil and Gold for further gains and maybe new yearly highs.
The sharp fall from the big Fibo at 88.00 stalled initially at 71.90 from where it bounced in a 3-wave retracement. With the 100 and 200-day MAs providing a ceiling of sorts and with the shorter term MAs now turning lower, the risk would certainly seem to be to the downside.
GBPAUD was my clear winner today clearing 400 points above last weeks top. Just under 100 points short of posting monthly highs from lows seen around
The biggest surge in the value of the U.S. dollar since 2005 appears to be waning, as traders retreat from bets against the euro and other currencies.
Futures traders at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange are in the process of unwinding record bets that the dollar will rally against other currencies.http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ag2SUrPc8mGc&pos=3
The number of contracts hedge funds and other large speculators hold betting on a rise in the dollar versus other currencies declined by 70% to 49,335 in the week ended June 22 from a June 8 peak of 163,085, according to an analysis of Commodity Futures Trading Commission data conducted by Bloomberg News.
With concern that Europes fiscal crisis will cause a nation to default easing, the Dollar Index - which measures the currency against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona - is down 3.5% since June 7.
Money Morning Chief Financial Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald thinks there may be an opportunity to cash in on the dollars recent weakness in view of the increasing flows of capital into Asian markets.
The money has now shifted across the Atlantic, headed through the U.S. economy, and headed straight for Asia. As a result, instead of shorting the euro, Im now inclined to short the dollar, while being generally long on the Hong Kong dollar, the Australian dollar and even the Chinese yuan, Fitz-Gerald wrote in a recent article.http://moneymorning.com/2010/06/26/u.s.-dollar-2/
John Taylor, chairman of FX Concepts LLC, the worlds largest hedge fund dedicated to currencies, correctly predicted in March that the dollar would appreciate to $1.20 per euro from about $1.35 at the time.
The euro traded as low as $1.1877 against the greenback on June 7 from $1.4321 at the end of December. Of the most-traded currencies tracked by Bloomberg, the only ones that have risen against the dollar this year are those of Japan, Mexico, Canada and Singapore.
But Taylor now says the greenback may be due for a breather after the index surged 9.57% since January - its best start to a year since 2005. Taylor is one of a growing number of traders who wants to wait and see how the European Unions (EU) nearly $1 trillion bailout plan works out before putting more bets on Americas currency.
We are scary, scary owners of euros, said Taylor, whose firm manages $7.5 billion. We are keeping our fingers crossed that maybe the euros appreciation lasts through July and into August. But then the euro is just going to get crushed as its an impossible situation in Europe.
An agreement by EU leaders to disclose how banks perform on stress tests and a successful bond sale by Spain have eased concerns that European nations will have difficulty raising funds. Spain sold $3.7 billion (3 billion euros) of 10-year debt on June 17 yielding 4.864%, below the 5.04% that the bonds traded at before the sale. Demand for the sale was almost twice the quantity of bonds Spain offered.
The European Central Bank (ECB) on June 10 raised its euro-region growth forecast for this year to 1%, from a previous estimate of 0.8%. Eurozone economies will grow about 1.2% in 2011, the ECB predicted.
But billionaire investor George Soros said European banks werent properly cleansed after the credit crisis because they havent marked the value of their holdings to market prices.
Bad assets havent been marked to market, but are being held to maturity, Soros said in remarks prepared for a speech in Berlin on June 23.
http://moneymorning.com/2010/06/24/george-soros-3/
The collapse of the financial system as we know it is real, and the crisis is far from over, he told a conference in Vienna late last week. Indeed, we have just entered Act II of the drama, when financial markets started losing confidence in the credibility of sovereign debt.
In February, Soros called the euros viability into question, and the currency plunged roughly 17% in the next three months.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM: 37.06 -1.48 -3.84%) on June 25 released the results of a second-quarter survey of clients that showed companies in the United States, Europe and Japan expect the euro will remain depressed versus the dollar for the remainder of 2010.
More than 90% of the 141 respondents, which have a total market capitalization of $2 trillion, say the euro will remain below $1.30 for the rest of the year. The average forecast, weighted by the size of the companies, fell to $1.22, from $1.34 in the March survey.
The banks analysts forecast the dollar will end the year at $1.20 per euro, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Both Fitz-Gerald and Soros recommend gold as a favored holding against fluctuating currency markets.
According to his funds latest filings with the Securities and Exchange C
World stocks, commodity prices and the euro tumbled on Tuesday as risk appetite ebbed over concerns about the repayment of 442 billion euros ($545.5 billion) to the European Central Bank.
Gold inched higher and U.S. Treasuries rose, pushing two-year note yields to the lowest on record, as jitters over the euro zone debt crisis supported safe-haven demand.
Yields on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasuries fell below 3 percent for the first time since April 2009 as the euro hit an all-time low versus the Swiss franc and an 8-1/2-year trough against the yen.
Investors shunned riskier assets and traders cited significant U.S. dollar short covering overnight, further weighing on the euro.
The dollar was up against a basket of major currencies, with the U.S. Dollar Index .DXY up 0.71 percent at 86.26.
The euro was down 0.98 percent at $1.2157.
The risk premium on southern European government bonds over benchmark German bunds widened and the cost of insuring their debt against default rose.
"There is quite a lot of worries about the (U.S.) payrolls, worries about stress tests of European banks and also the rollover of ECB's long-term repo operations that will be taking place in the next couple of days," said Paul Robson, currency strategist at RBS Global Banking.
European shares slumped, with the FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 index down 2.8 percent. Shanghai's equities index .SSEC plunged more than 4 percent and Japan's Nikkei .N225 was poised for its worst quarter since 2008.
Banks were among the heaviest decliners as they prepare to pay back the ECB money that was borrowed a year ago at rock bottom rates, leaving a potential liquidity shortfall in the financial system of over 100 billion euros.
Barclays, BNP Paribas and BBVA were down 3 percent to 4.1 percent.
U.S. stocks extended losses, dropping more than 2 per cent, after a weak reading of the Conference Board's U.S. consumer confidence index, which fell in June to 52.9 from a downwardly revised 62.7 the previous month.
The CBOE Volatility Index .VIX jumped more than 16 percent to a session high of 33.82 on news of the private business research group's confidence index.
Even though single-family home prices unexpectedly climbed in April from the previous month, signs of a sustained recovery have yet to emerge, price indexes from Standard & Poor's/Case Shiller showed.
The S&P composite index of prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas rose 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis after a downwardly revised 0.2 percent drop in March, compared with a 0.1 percent decline forecast in a Reuters survey.
MSCI's all-country world index .MIWD00000PUS fell 2.7 percent and its emerging markets index .MSCIEF fell. 2.8 percent.
Shortly after 10 a.m., the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 224.46 points, or 2.21 percent, at 9,914.06. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was down 25.39 points, or 2.36 percent, at 1,049.18. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was down 65.29 points, or 2.94 percent, at 2,155.36.
Oil prices fell more than 3 percent to below $76 per barrel and copper shed more than 4 percent as concerns about economic recovery weighed on market sentiment.
U.S. light sweet crude oil fell $2.64 to $75.61 a barrel.
ICE Brent fell $2.47 to $75.12.
Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes were trading 14/32 higher in price to yield 2.97 percent. Bond yields move in inverse relationship to their price.
Against the yen, the dollar was down 0.92 percent at 88.53.
Where is every body today? It's awfully quite here today.........
UK
June 28, 2010 05:01 ET Last paragraph......
*he UK has passed a high profile austerity budget (see analysis here) and so has Germany. Nevertheless, the G20 remains divided.** FORGOT TO PROVIDE LINK **
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/interactive/2010/jun/22/budget-2010-information-beautiful-blog