EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
How to improve your decision--makingh between Nasdaq100 and SPX by watching technicals in bond yields - Details in video description.
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
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The raging dispute over the Baltic Dry Index is starting to feel like the Jansenists debate with the Ultramontanists, with the Big Media playing the enforcement role of Pope Innocent X against heretical bloggers such as Zero Hedge.
Double dip in the Baltic http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100006933/double-dip-in-the-baltic/
Deflation: 1931 vs. Today
By CASEY B. MULLIGAN
Deflation has returned this summer, but its still nothing like what happened in the Great Depression years of 1929-33.
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/21/deflation-1931-vs-today/
China land prices
China land prices
JPY As we await its the Japanese yen that is on the move. On Wednesday it gained across the board as investors cast their focus on the fast-dissipating yield differentials between the yen and the dollar. Theory has it that a slowing U.S. economy leaves policy makers on either side of the Pacific equally impotent, which at this stage leaves the dollar on the back-foot more so than the yen. Dealers are also tossing the ball back into the Bank of Japans court at this point as they buy the yen. Buying pressure for the typically safe yen has been mounting after evidence has grown that the global economy is slowing down. While that independently strangles the fuel pipe for the Japanese manufacturing sector it also harms the bottom-line profits as exporters face fewer buyers of their now relatively more expensive products. Today the dollar rescinded some of Tuesdays gains falling to 87.05. The yen strengthened to 111.61 against the euro while it accelerated per Australian dollar to 76.97 as concerns rose over the strength of the global economy.
USD The fear-based bid behind the dollar on Tuesday disappeared as quickly as it had arrived with investors reversing an earlier disdain for equities. Concern has been growing very recently that the domestic slowdown leaves authorities hemmed in and unable to further fuel a recovery. Starting today Fed Chairman Bernanke will spend two days in Washington addressing the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee in his semiannual account of the health of the economy. Some speculation has mounted that he will discuss the potential for reducing the deposit rate applied to bankers excess reserves, which would be a further quantitative ease. The dollar index is stronger today at 82.92
Euro the euro reached $1.2791 for its weakest reading in six days as the results of the stress test slowly draws to a conclusion. Actually inconclusion may be a more appropriate term to describe the outcome. According to European banking regulators the report will reveal the stance of the 91 banks under three scenarios. The primary test will review the health of each named bank using a 2011 benchmark to review its Tier 1 capital. The second scenario will review under a so-called adverse scenario, while the third will imply a sovereign shock, which presumably means that the banks balance sheet will be stressed to reflect the haircut it would face if a government reneged on its debt.
We also know that banks shown to fail the test will be given time to go out and raise capital. After the results are published and the stresses are evident, credit analysts will be able to tell us how much capital any given back would need to get its house back in order. It will actually be a positive development to find that several banks are in need of a make over as it will underscore the integrity of the testing process. Watch out if everyone scores an A, however.
GBP The pound rose following the publication of recent Bank of England minutes where of course policy was left on hold. For a second back-to-back meeting Andrew Sentance rowed against the other crewmembers favoring an upwards adjustment to monetary policy. The pound added to Tuesdays gains and reached its highest point against the dollar at $1.5336 before a bout of dollar strength washed gains away leaving the unit adrift at $1.5262.
Discussion addressed the recent emergency budget and concluded that while it was too early to fully assess the impact of its measures, one thing was for sure. A sales tax coming in to effect in 2011 would add to an already difficult inflationary profile. Data for April saw the pace of consumer prices reach a 17-month peak while the most recent data showing a 3.2% pace of inflation remains beyond the 3% ceiling. Investors are not yet looking for a monetary policy increase, however, but feel assured that the Bank will likely be an early mover even if we have to throw in the word eventually.
According to a Dow Jones Newswire story yesterday, policymaker Adam Posen was quoted as saying that in his opinion the next move from the central bank on the current assessment is lower rather than higher. His remarks seem to surround addressing quantitative measures as opposed to cutting official interest rates in light of the challenge posed by price pressures. The pound continues to outperform the continental euro on the view that the domestic economy is less bruised than that of the Euro
And EURGBP should we leave it for a while did fancied a short today from 0.8520, If i can get 8385 or 8345 that will be a very nice profit......How do play EURGBP are you trading it at all these days? This is my hedge pair for Aussie and Cable trades.
Well its not one thing really its number of factors
Fact its just short squeeze before the world leader go on their prep breaks in August
Before Q4 starts and the final summon for 2011, (which will be a real fractional year) to find bottoms and show 2011 will give moderate growth and what more it wont stop them from raising growth forecast mid2011. Fed made a very cleaver move to reduce growth figures and use them as collateral next year when they would really really really need to prove that they are getting out of a recession.
Fact that before Q4 the financial news media needs more grounds to run propagandas and dooms day scenario, just so their channels can spread more links on the web and finally to desperate individuals.
Fact that in order to show growth in the economy in 2011 gov head and the Fed needs to tactically show and prove again to the public that deficit has reduced. That will happen from T-note, further QE to ensure public bond safety, but with austerity coming ahead to hit America like never before and with spending cut, so with deficit reduce its pace only I dont believe T's will yeild much but the stock will rally again. Proving my point why stock may show faith to buyer around Mid 2011. Once stocks gain more trader and money back in the market the FED monetary policy will find it their duty to naturally naturally finds get a stronger dollar as globally US stock market will be back in demand by some twisted faith. Strong stock = Stonrger dollar. Same time i think US property will find its feet again after some states get bailout, Mark MY WORDS Here, Only 2 or 3 states get bailed out property will come back, not before that.
Still few worth while things for longer term to keep in mind....
So you wonder what's here in the shorter term, well!!!
Now you must have notice commodities playing neutral to declining dollar. Meaning that the dollar is exactly where it made a high in may, exactly when Gold broker 1165 top side and moved into 1200, Oil when slid and moved below 84.50 channel for a leg down, exactly where copper lost momentum, exactly when the European bail out was about to be announced. So you ask again what does that means for the markets and Euro in particular, well that the Euro has enough in it to pull a 136, considering Euro clearly breaks 13120 and cable a 158 correspondingly in weeks ahead but that would put a spanner in the works for the sort game play I discussed above.
So fundamentals for this quarter are much expected will remain stable in sense much to the delights of the economists, so with not much news for the media to talk about or to manufacture (e.g oil gush) , and mainly the rhetoric of discussion mainly being a reflection of this year, any exception that will come will be precipitated only as market noise.
Thus in this quite weeks and months ahead the markets have plenty of technicality to talk about and allot of technical noise to generate. Nothing gets buyer and investors back in the market like hearing Gold finally hits 1080 support level, oil rebound from 68 to test again 92 94. Plus we need spot rate to settle and test 126 127 128 and 130 price handles to check for demand. Worst comes worse top I still see 13090 for next week and not more than that. and for couple of week we will these levels before we start smelling the whiff of the next break out in Euro up or down who knows.
And that before Obama returns from his holidays and announces that he's developed a skin problem and that he's about to turn white just dont freak out, I'll still be black inside don't buy anything Unamerican :)
Although the outlook considering the reforms and policy problem that struck the E-zone this year did struck a course for a downward suggestive trend. But the pair stopped well before the lows of 2004's price failure level of 11790, which would also have been major area of concern for Central Banks. Cause there after the only significant support level was 10610 and then to the pit. Its obvious that the CB's does not what the EURO in those levels as yet or was not comfortable with the rate of decline seen in past some months, hence it intervened. And still keep the big picture in our minds like the price action for this decade;
We need to reflect how the our counter trade party exchange is positioning its price mark. While most US trader or even institution may come out and say "I dont understand what EURO is doing up there, its real price is below parity" are themselves seen in this decade alone many a times dumping dollars and favouring another currency for short term benefits. Euro was the new kid on the block so sometimes it got favoured more sometimes the others. But this general trend amongst US financial institution has been going on for more than a decade now which really took off in the late 80's. They did that with regularly Asiatic currencies, European currencies or shape short term cash bonds in the past. So the problem is not in the sentiment its in the culture, which I'm sure will have to change sooner than later. But same time a global reserve currency that generally relies on one countries domestic economic health does not look good to stay intact for long either. And then the sentiment around reserve reform and its governance rhetoric still seem unchallengeable through global political agenda's or with Central Banks policy issues.
That said I dont really know what's solution for dollar or its status as a global reserve currency really means for the Americans themselves. I mean shouldn't they be concerned with this Dollar decline for the last 20 to 30 years is there no raise of concern globally for that. I mean yes Greece was not as big as US to continue raising their deficit level, but really How Big is BIG really? How big is 1 trillion 3 trillion, 4 trillion. How many trillion's worth is America for, or is it too Big and Good and Greater when seen in comparison with the rest of the world. I mean with can still exist and think Globally with certain exclusions can we not! I know my discussion is truely going the other way but really you have to think. If the deficits are the global problems then remove the global reserve rights, dissolve the IMF, world bank, who will the nation owe money to next NO ONE! Will prosperity be too hard to see from there I dont think so.
LEARN TO LOOK FOR EARLY SIGNS OF A MARKET FAILURES
Other than losing money on uncertain recommendation daily and frequently, learn to play the market failures/breakouts/trend reversals/ or the big players themselves, and there and then go in big with a single position or a couple.
ALWAYS ALLOW ROOM FOR RISK IN YOUR ANALYSIS
Absence of black is not white!!!! Always remember that. Learn to hedge and learn some good strategies if you can from some experts. Market or Economic analysis are always good for placing your judgement in favour of the right trend. Dont always be too quick to judge no mater how short or long term analysis are deemed, market action always take its time to play and will only hit targets when the price is right for majority of participants. Over wise we will have one sided play.
LEAVE HOPES & PRAYERS ARE FOR CHURCH'S, SYNAGOGUES AND MOSQUES
Never rely on hopes and prayers for your price action to get you your price. Always enter and hold your position in the trend that holds more significances or is more recent (if it was significant) or is in line with any wider macro change. Only close those hedged positions that are suppose to be short lived and reopen again as soon as you get a good price.
These are just some of things that I wanted to mention here based on how markets have been for this year, or you would and should follow them even if t was any market conditions. People need to stop thinking like bloody economist, and if your traders just follow the analysis and take them as you see and nothing more. No need to sell you home, wives and kids and put all your money on that one particular bet. Your analyst can be wrong from time to time and that is only natural as markets are truly unpredictable. So allow that bit acceptance in yourself and in your trading format that would also allow your analyst the encouragement to do right again. Every one has the right to their give their opinion, but please only do so if you know what you are talking about. Or remain astray like most sheeple are.
What is surprising is that the managers of those central banks arent buying traditional fall-backs like the euro (EUR), the British pound (GBP) or the Japanese yen (JPY). Instead, she suggests theyre putting their faith in other dollars the kind that come from Australia and Canada. The allocation to those currencies, which fall under other in the data, rose by a full percentage point to 8.5%, accounting almost exactly for the drop in the US dollar allocation.
Thats some good news for loonie and Aussie dollar (AUD) holders, eh? But the big thing in my mind is that central banks are diversifying Shouldnt you? Like that old soap commercial Arent you glad you used Dial? Dont you wish everyone did? HA!
The currencies, led by the Big Dog, euro, are weaker this morning, with the euro backing off 3/4s of a cent (0.75) versus the dollar. I really havent come across anything that points to a reason for this backing off Except the noise regarding the upcoming Street Tests results But, to me, its really just noise
Speaking of the euro I was reading this weekend about how industrial production is rising along with factory output in Germany And that is a Big Deal! Germany is the growth engine of the Eurozone, and with the weaker euro, manufacturing is taking off once again. The BIG automakers, BMW, Audi and Mercedes have all announced that they are hiring workers, and canceling holidays to catch up with demand.
If the German economy werent so strong right now, Chancellor Angela Merkel would not have been able to push through a four-year package of spending cuts that total 81.6 billion euros
Again I love this back and forth between the US who wants to spend their way out of the mess, and wants other countries to follow them, and the other countries that are in the opposite corner, wearing the blue trunks, and their pledge to cut spending and deficits.
Anyway The Chicken Littles who were screaming that the sky was falling and that the euro would collapse and that there would be a break up, have all gone away For now Im not saying the euro is out of the woods, folks But for now The cries have faded
Over in Japan there was an Upper House election called that has rocked the yen a bit I tell you this If I had a 1 oz. gold coin for every new Japanese official and election that Ive seen since 1992 (when I began trading foreign bonds), I would be a very rich man today!
Speaking of gold With the euro backing off some, gold is back above $1,200 Back and forth we go, but the thing to take from this back and forth is that $1,200 seems to be the new base Usually, what you have, in these assets like this, is a probe higher, then profit taking Then a back and forth as the new base forms And once everyone is strapped in, with their arms and legs inside the Gold Express at all times, the asset can then move higher and put the base in the rear view mirror.
And to all those naysayers and doomsday people who said that Chinas economy was going to collapse, I guess theyll have to go drape their black ribbons on some other economy Hint, wink, wink You dont have to go far Wink, wink
China reported record exports for June and their largest trade surplus in eight months! And its just like old times again in China
Especially after the US failed to name China a currency manipulator Chickens Bawk, Bawk I mean wasnt it Obama who pledge to press China hard to stop manipulating its currency during the campaign? And then there was US Treasury Secretary Geithner, who told lawmakers during his confirmation hearings that he thought China was guilty of manipulation
But for the third time since these two took office, they have failed to name China a currency manipulator Hmmm
Aussie Home Loan Data showed the first increase in last October, which is a good thing. However, the home financing is still down almost 12% year-to-date So, heres my take on this data October was about the time the RBA began their rate hike cycle, and it took six months of rate hikes to get in peoples minds that home loan rates were going to be higher, and they should go ahead and book their loan now before they go higher!
And in Canada The jobs data on Friday, has people talking rate hikes left and right for Canada Whooooa there, Im still on board for a July 20 rate hike, which will be next week, when Im in Canada Im not fully convinced theres enough breathing roo