i think it would be a different ballgame and not the usual outcome as it did before...
whenever there was a slowdown/downturn/crisis .... money flocked to US treasuries for safety... but things have changed recently and i'm not sure if this will be the case...
let's simply think of of countries as households....
US has enjoyed being the superpower creating the most output.... the biggest household... and it was a normal thing that money would flock to that household whenever things didn't look good....
because of ill handling of this fund and spending recklessly for too long...(how long have they've been having an account deficit?) i'm not sure if people will be convinced and tolerate any longer this kind of behavior by the US gov't....
US and Japan are two totally different nation and their behavior also very different... as much as there was no growth in japan for so long... they have spent their money wisely... so no point in comparing the two countries and the probable outcome...
simply think of income and expense.... no doubt that US makes the most income... but if they always spend more than they make... i'm not sure if that's a good place to invest....
to become rich and successful is not to make more.... but spend less than what you make... a household or an individual will never be successful if his expenses are always more than his income....
looking like last friday's move from 6618 to 6453 looks impulsive... could correct a bit higher but as long as below that line it will be moving lower to 6280/6300 level.... break of 6421 confirms....
my 6565 shorts didn't get triggered.... could see continuation down to 6400 area as long as below 6555... above 6555... see it moving above yesterday's high...
US stocks looking a bit heavy for further advance... if DOW breaks below 11290... see quick selloff to 10650/10700 area... normally this would mean money going into US treasuries and USD strengthening but i'm not sure if this would be the case now....
if USDx recovers back above 74.215... it would see further recovery back up to 74.90 which could mean Euro back down testing 4160/80 support....
so if we see US stocks selloff going into weekend... might see USD gaining going into weekend and probably see continuation early part of next week... and Euro will still be stuck in the 4000~4500 range...
DOW will likely see continued loss down to 10300/400 level.... may see some technical bounce from that area but as long as it trades below 11500.... will see more selling pressure.. and if it falls below 103300 level... things will really turn negative..... not looking good atm... we may have seen the top and headed for double dip.... :(
checked out the other forum... quite messy for my taste.... found one very sensible guy there making good calls... i think his name was tallinn... only he caught my attention.... and there was also this guy called drunken Katt or something... seem quite confused with what he's doing...
anyway... back to work...
expecting extension to 4540/50 level.... then pullback to 4350/70..... at least... with possibility of testing 4230/50.... won't do any harm to current bullish trend from 3837 low...
break above 4580 and if Euro settles above 4550 level.... would likely target 4730/50 level...
don't see Euro moving beyond 4580 until the debt ceiling result comes out... so i'm personally expecting some good retrace as long as Euro capped below 4550 level...
first support @ 4238... if broken could pullback to next strong support @ 4200 area... only 8 hour close below 4200 could trigger bigger pullback to 4150 area...
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ما وراء هبوط الدولار مع الذهب و من منهما يتمكن الارتداد؟
موعدنا الآن في غرفة شركة إكس أم لجلسة الأسواق
https://t.co/Y7tD0RxCS2
@XM_COM (10 months ago)
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whenever there was a slowdown/downturn/crisis .... money flocked to US treasuries for safety... but things have changed recently and i'm not sure if this will be the case...
let's simply think of of countries as households....
US has enjoyed being the superpower creating the most output.... the biggest household... and it was a normal thing that money would flock to that household whenever things didn't look good....
because of ill handling of this fund and spending recklessly for too long...(how long have they've been having an account deficit?) i'm not sure if people will be convinced and tolerate any longer this kind of behavior by the US gov't....
US and Japan are two totally different nation and their behavior also very different... as much as there was no growth in japan for so long... they have spent their money wisely... so no point in comparing the two countries and the probable outcome...
simply think of income and expense.... no doubt that US makes the most income... but if they always spend more than they make... i'm not sure if that's a good place to invest....
to become rich and successful is not to make more.... but spend less than what you make...
a household or an individual will never be successful if his expenses are always more than his income....
my 6565 shorts didn't get triggered.... could see continuation down to 6400 area as long as below 6555... above 6555... see it moving above yesterday's high...
if USDx recovers back above 74.215... it would see further recovery back up to 74.90 which could mean Euro back down testing 4160/80 support....
so if we see US stocks selloff going into weekend... might see USD gaining going into weekend and probably see continuation early part of next week... and Euro will still be stuck in the 4000~4500 range...
not looking good atm... we may have seen the top and headed for double dip.... :(
expecting retest of 4380/4400... then 1 more dip to 4090/4100 b4 heading higher again...
this would get the bears excited for awhile... :)
only weekly close below 4100 would shift bias south with break of 4014 confirming...
have to see which side breaks first... 4014 or 4453...
personally expecting break north... and new highs in coming months... :)
anyway... back to work...
expecting extension to 4540/50 level.... then pullback to 4350/70..... at least... with possibility of testing 4230/50.... won't do any harm to current bullish trend from 3837 low...
break above 4580 and if Euro settles above 4550 level.... would likely target 4730/50 level...
don't see Euro moving beyond 4580 until the debt ceiling result comes out... so i'm personally expecting some good retrace as long as Euro capped below 4550 level...
gl/gt
that's my chart....
so what do you think? still shorto?