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548 Posts Total by "xaron":
528 Posts by member
Xaron
(Munich, Germany)
20 Posts by Anonymous "xaron":
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Xaron
Munich, Germany
Posts: 528
14 years ago
Dec 23, 2009 11:25
In Thread: Dollar Sobers Up Despite Fed PunchBowl
Thanks said. So what does that mean for the next weeks/months for the EUR/USD in your opinion?
Xaron
Munich, Germany
Posts: 528
14 years ago
Dec 23, 2009 10:59
In Thread: Dollar Sobers Up Despite Fed PunchBowl
Interesting, Evan. Thanks for that kind of view!
Xaron
Munich, Germany
Posts: 528
14 years ago
Dec 23, 2009 10:07
In Thread: Dollar Sobers Up Despite Fed PunchBowl
Something to think about regarding the situation about the US from one of my favourites (Chuck Butler):http://www.tradercurrencies.com/currency-trading/36097/why-america-is-flat-broke/
Xaron
Munich, Germany
Posts: 528
14 years ago
Dec 23, 2009 9:44
In Thread: Dollar Sobers Up Despite Fed PunchBowl
Steven: regarding the Aussie I think it hardly depends on China. I expect the Aussie to hit parity in the long run but maybe not in Q1 2010. But I'm more confident of an Aussie recovery than an Euro recovery, so an EUR/AUD short could be more interesting.
Xaron
Munich, Germany
Posts: 528
14 years ago
Dec 23, 2009 9:32
In Thread: Dollar Sobers Up Despite Fed PunchBowl
I can't imagine that the Dollar gains much further. The reason for my thinking is simple: It's in no interest of the US to have a raising Dollar. As long as even the US wants a weak Dollar (good for exports and their debts problems) I won't fight against there printing press.

You're right, we have some serious problems in the EU as well, but it's hard to fight against Heli-Ben. ;)
Xaron
Munich, Germany
Posts: 528
14 years ago
Dec 23, 2009 9:20
In Thread: Dollar Sobers Up Despite Fed PunchBowl
That's not going to happen in my opinion. The Euro is just downtalked since its introduction but actually it's a success story compared to his short live.

But it's always nice to hear different opinions. :)

I think we will reach 1.55+ levels in Q1 2010 after it's clear that the FED won't hike anytime soon. And they won't do that if they are not 100% that the recession is over. They won't risk a double dip thing.

I agree that we might see 1.38 before but I think that the current levels are already totally overstretched (technically) and a correction is in the cards.
Xaron
Munich, Germany
Posts: 528
14 years ago
Dec 18, 2009 14:56
In Thread: Euro's Third Down Leg
spec why do you think that I'm behind the curve? Could you give me please a more detailed fundamental outlook which would support the USD?

The only things I can imagine are shocks like wars (Israel-Iran?).

The unemployment numbers are still rising and the way the US calculate them does just not show the real picture, IMHO. So the rates will stay low for some time and there even might be more stimulus stuff.
Xaron
Munich, Germany
Posts: 528
14 years ago
Dec 18, 2009 11:51
In Thread: Euro's Third Down Leg
Why I think the Dollar will continue to weaken in 2010:

Let's make some assumptions about the money flows for 2010 regarding the Dollar.

So we have on the Dollar demand side:

USD demand (which would support the Dollar) due to:
1) technical corrections within the primary down trend for the Dollar
2) interventions from central banks (more likely if the Euro reaches 1.55+ levels)
3) unwinding of carry trades

As I don't see any systemic risks like in 2008 I think that "safe haven" argument don't count as the Dollar can't be seen as safe haven any longer.

USD supply (which would support non dollar currencies like the Euro) due to:
1) appreciation in value on toxic US portfolios at european banks because of better economic condition and stabilization of the financial system.
2) interest rate differentials (I expect the ECB to hike in march 2010 and continue up to 2.00% till end of 2010 where the FED might hike in H2 earliest if they even hike 2010 at all)
3) a growing US trade and current account deficit
4) diversification from central banks into other currencies
5) the primary USD down trend (just technical again)

That's what I see. Have I forgot something?
Xaron
Munich, Germany
Posts: 528
14 years ago
Dec 18, 2009 11:39
In Thread: Euro's Third Down Leg
spec, where shall that huge demand for the Dollar come from? Do you think because of huge risk aversion like in 2008? I think we will see some Dollar strength in 2010 as well but still stick to my target of 1.6x levels in Q1 2010 and see a low border of 1.40 in Q2.

I still don't see that necessary demand for the Dollar next year. As far as I know the US has to refinance $2 trillion within the next 12 months. I doubt they will find enough foreign buyers for that amount. So the only option is printing more money and let the FED buy its own treasury stuff...
Xaron
Munich, Germany
Posts: 528
14 years ago
Dec 17, 2009 14:39
In Thread: Euro's Third Down Leg
I take that bet spec and say it will be above 1.50 in january/february again.
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