Posts by "yobadnewz"

Euro steaming, reaming banana creaming all over the dollar.

This massive rally in stocks and risk currencies fueled entirely by loose FED policy, but any signs that it will stop, and kaboom!

Trichet has played his hand well, aided by Bernanke, but I think this is as good as it gets for the Euro this year...short from here.

Morning all, hope all is world in your respective worlds.

So the Euro has been rallying last couple of days on expectations of a ECB rate hike (or series of).

Portugal has gone quiet too, and maybe Brazil will come to rescue the fatherland.

Yet significant headwinds are forming: stress tests on Ireland's banks today (although these have never been serious), impact of any interest rate hike on the periphery (the eurozone is fundamentally not growing, the inflation is imported primarily from the FEDs money printing), and bish bash bosh the most significant event:

The FED may not do QE3.

In which case all bets will be off.

But place them anyway...place yer bets...

Morning all, hope life is treating you well. I'm 30 today, looking forward to a good decade of learning more about my currency trading hobby.
So the Portugal problems have arose as expected, and a bailout now looks more a question of when than if. Meanwhile Merkel's hands are tied until German elections, as opposition grows to periphery bailouts, so this could be very bad timing to need a bailout.
In both Greece and Ireland, the run up to bailout was accompanied by big falls in the Euro. But are markets now more content with the bailout process having gone through it twice, and will Trichet's indications of a rate hike keep them on the Euro's side?
Yet no crisis is exactly the same, and without an elected government in power, the bailout of Portugal could be very complicated if they do not have a mandate to organise an IMF/EU bailout.
Meanwhile, opposition is growing to the FED's money printing policies, with one member calling it unacceptable. Markets still expect the Bernanke put to come in whenever they trend down, but what if this cycle is broken? Equities will fall and the dollar will rise.
I'm getting the sense now that the euro has had its rally, and will start downtrending from here into the summer.

So Trichet essentially says nothing and the euro motors up, crazy world.

Morning all. Well congratulations to those who have persevered with the long euro, finally a close above 1.40.
As a Euro shorter, I take off my hat.
So what is in store now for the euro vs the dollar?
Well, considering the huge role the ECB and FED play in this currency pair, I think it is worth taking some time to second guess their next move.
I remain unconvinced the ECB will raise rates in April (If it does, I will throw in the towel on my euro short), as it is now historically above average value and the export machine Germany doesn't want too much strength. Add in Trichet's reputation for treating the markets like fools (which in fairness, they usually are) and I still favour a climbdown on this, especially if the periphery countries start complaining at the meeting next thursday (also Badnewz's 30th birthday, although I will not be giving a press conference).
FED, well the more I look at their outrageous money printing activities, the sorrier I feel for the hardworking people in America. Will we start hearing QE3 noises? Probably, and if that combines with an interest rate rise by ECB, then as far as I can see, long Euro vs the Dllr is going up and up.
Until then, place yer bets...