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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jan 1, 2011 0:30
Comments: 1846
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This thread was started in response to the :

Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis

Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis
 
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FXHandler
Norway
Posts: 195
15 years ago
Sep 3, 2009 0:38
Thanks Ashraf, 60% sure.
This is why, if it goes to 50 dollar, I am looking for a short USD/NOK. I think 60 dollar will go fast....
FXHandler
Norway
Posts: 195
15 years ago
Sep 3, 2009 0:35
Risk aversion... Look at Gold last night! upto 980 now! Is Gold going to replace dollar?
Ashraf?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Sep 3, 2009 0:26
Handler, Im only 60% sure about sub-50 oil. Let's get to 60 and 55 first then we will see.

Even Algeria's Oil minister (last year's OPEC chief) said he sees lower oin prices.

Ashraf
FXHandler
Norway
Posts: 195
15 years ago
Sep 3, 2009 0:19
Steven,
Norway has a way better future than UK, GBP will loose more steam against NOK in the future. But right now, mid-term, the NOK is such a small currency, risk aversion is working against it, so is oil. I would be carefull shorting GBP/NOK now.... Very long term I see GBP/NOK at around 9,2...

Ashraf, Qin,
VIX raised to 30%, people are scared now. NOK is weakening, oil dropping, stimulus packages running out and Dr. Dooms W bottom is in the news. I think dollar will have a short-lived rally but I am sure to pay attention to the DX and falling stocks through September October.However, the USD/NOK is so unpredictable now... Ashraf, I am following your predictions of USD/CAD, it give me some idea of the NOK. Mid-term, Where do you see oil Ashraf? Below 50?

I would like to short JPY/NOK. Qin, give me an idea of were you see a good entry for this pair? Not before next year? hmm.... for the future this pair can give an incredible gain in your portefolio (as you mentioned before).
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Sep 3, 2009 0:17
Qin, you should have plan B and C. If your stop at 7.2 is approached, would be nice to hedge (in same account or separate account) by selling OIL, or buying Inverse Oil ETFs. Another way is HEDGE by BUYING EURNOK because EURO STABILIZATION IS ONE OF THE LEAST TALKED ABOUT (MOST OVERLOOKED) FOREX DEVELOPMENTS.

Ashraf
Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
15 years ago
Sep 2, 2009 23:46
Ashraf....thank you for the advice..... I will watch it very carefully.......I think I will add positions at every 10 to 15 cents gap, if the pare still keep rising...... I counted that I will have full size positions when it reach to 6.5....... my stop should at 7.2.........if I fail, I will be wiped out by all my profits this year........

Life needs battle......hope I will win it.
Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
15 years ago
Sep 2, 2009 23:40
Just checked some information about Yen....

USD/YEN there is some potion position at 92......and EUR/YEN is at 131.......Japanese traders are talking about traders may will have a battle at these levels.........

I would like to watch it......hope Yen will win and trigger all the stop loss......
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Sep 2, 2009 23:34
Qin, I think the KEY ELEMENT of your short USDNOK trade is GRADUAL ACCUMULATION, which is a good strategy for a currencies such as NOK, AUD and BRL. I DO AGREE THAT USD will strengthen in the medium term and could reach as high as 6.30-35 at which point is a decent area to sell USD.

Handler, you may be right. RIsk aversion has a way of punishing higher yielding currencies despite their growth prospects.

While my forecast for lower oil prices will hurt NOK, i think we could see STABILIZATION IN GAS prices, which is Norway's major export.

Steven, GBPJPY is volatile but less volatile than USDNOK and is near the 147 target.

i still prefer to buy GBP vs NZD as a hedge for shorting GBPUSD

Ashraf
Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
15 years ago
Sep 2, 2009 23:30
Hey, guys.....
I am very careful this time.......I posted that we may see correction in the beginning of September by 50%.....here we are watching every day since this week.....but I also see USD rally is losing power on risk aversion......

I have to admit that I always entry the market too early....always......specially, when I done my homework, I just can't wait anymore......maybe I need more patient.......

I am using DBFX trading now......so I don't have the pare GBP/NOK.........but I maybe will consider about short GBP/USD to hedge my position if I am wrong this time........

Yen is rising as I expected before, mainly because of the election result.......I have to say Jim Rogers is a genius, even Japanese trader didn't expect it will rally so strong.......I think Yen will rally for a while as stock drop and election result......
But to be honesty, I am counting time to short Yen now.....I think I will do it early by next year, or once Jim Rogers says I have got out my Yen now.........haha.....I don't want to against those big players, he is not the only one long Yen......he has huge fans and players follow him everyday....

Good luck everyone!!
Steven Blyth
London, UK
Posts: 148
15 years ago
Sep 2, 2009 23:05
FXHandler. Greetz. What do you think of a GBPNOK short?
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