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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:
EUR
Discuss EUR in this thread
i see... take care and see you around... :)
have a great day today. GL all.
it's been awhile... how are you doing?
did you notice that CAT and Tony disappeared from the Euro thread? :)
Did you mean 1.42 and 1.32? LOL
for me 4160/70 was the main resistance line for Euro bears... if not violated... would have been good shorts.... but now it has clearly violated and my bias tilting for move higher next week....
I'll be shorting again 4210/20 level initially and liquidate all my posi at 4160.... I could also go long 4150/60 if 4220 level will be violated... :)
gl/gt
For me any euro strength looks naive, to put it mildly. But I don't hold my breath on euro weakness especially while watching a 1300 pip intervention spree since mid-Jan, all I can expect is a sobering ECB press conf. So I mostly stick to crosses that make sense to me, like AUD, CHF, CAD. Risk/reward is off the charts there compared to EUR. And I don't get murdered in the chop, especially when I make the chop. :)
technically... clear break and close above 4160 for me already tilting in favor of Euro bulls... but break above 4220 confirms... minor support now at 4150/60... and stronger support 4100/4110... only clear break below 4100 level and Euro bears back in the game.... :)
gl/gt
it depends on the setup.... for me break above 4220 would likely confirm resumption of uptrend...
but that level won't be my stops... expect a correction down to 4150/60(minor) or bigger pullback could see retest of 4090/4100... so i'll see reaction at 4220/4260 level and decide from there on...
for current setup(assuming it was an a-b-c correction.... break above 4220 confirms).. if Euro breaks above 4220... then would confirm resumption of uptrend... but wouldn't likely see straight jump going higher... would see position traders adjust their strategy for next big move... this will likely cause the correction down back to 4150/60 or 4090/4100.... b4 moving higher... and more importantly facing the main resistance of 4282(previous high)...
crucial level at current stage(facing 4282 previous high).... break above that level or rejection would be very significant for movement for next 3 to 6 months....
So the Euro has been rallying last couple of days on expectations of a ECB rate hike (or series of).
Portugal has gone quiet too, and maybe Brazil will come to rescue the fatherland.
Yet significant headwinds are forming: stress tests on Ireland's banks today (although these have never been serious), impact of any interest rate hike on the periphery (the eurozone is fundamentally not growing, the inflation is imported primarily from the FEDs money printing), and bish bash bosh the most significant event:
The FED may not do QE3.
In which case all bets will be off.
But place them anyway...place yer bets...