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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Aug 14, 2009 10:23
Comments: 203
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This thread was started in response to the Hot-Chart:

USDJPY Cyclical Peaks

 
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Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Sep 15, 2009 0:51
jack, ayman, Unless of course USDJPY rallies and GBPUSD drops back. Im NOT looking at anything above 94 for now. The main reason i expect USDJPY minirebound is mainly USD strength MORE than yen weakness. keeping aside the heavy data week, including the GBP downside risk from UK CPI, I'd see any upside in GBPJPY to be capped at 153, but overall trend in USDJPY and GBPJPY remains well down. Also looking for EURGBP breakout.

Ashraf
aymankhlifat
amman, Jordan
Posts: 21
15 years ago
Sep 14, 2009 19:12
hi ashraf
do u agree that usd/jpy may toutch 95 before going down again
thanks
Regards
ayman.
JackD
United States
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 14, 2009 17:01
Dear Ashraf,

If you think that USDJPY will move up temporarily to 93.20, then would it be safe to say that GBPJPY is not likely to go lower than 149.90s for this week and that it could have a temp bounce since Yen will weaken? I am creating a trading plan for the week and looking for good TP points and places to reenter shorts. Currently deep in the green like Moshin with long held GY shorts and have already TP on half of my positions.

-Jack Dee
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Sep 14, 2009 13:31
stone, lets see. GBP and NZD are hurting quite a bit across the board.

raj, you could also say that now the new Jpns govt will be officially appointed, they may start jawboning a bit.but these new folks may not be as opposed to yen strength as previous govt.

Ashraf
14raj
Kolkata, India
Posts: 210
15 years ago
Sep 14, 2009 11:11
Ashraf,
beside technical reason...some fundamentals that prompt me to think about 95 yen are, I dont think that Yen is going to use as risk aversion asset as US has lower interest rate( I get this piece from Seeking alpha) .And just take a look at the chart, when Euro is advancing against Dollar at a same or lesser pace Yen also following the game, so now if Dollar is really gonna retaliate majors then may be some how Yen will depreciate. Even IMM OIs showed that speculators are at record long Yen holders, so may be some contrarian point of view we can expect some wild shakeout.

Regards,
Rajib.
redstone
bristol, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 14, 2009 7:33
Nice call Ashraf. USD/JPY now 90.52. GPB/JPY 150.71 looks like your tatget of 148.60 is drawing closer.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Sep 14, 2009 4:51
raj, interesting question about 95 yen. Markets are starting to struggle (since thursday in fact not friday) and yen was already strengthening. So as stocks drop further, why would you now expect yen weakness against USD? the USD bounce could help USDJPY stabilize to probably 93.50s after which id say we would come back down. Why dont you set preliminary limit sell around 93?

Ashraf
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 14, 2009 3:28
Hope you guys have your Footsie shorts ready!
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 14, 2009 3:26
They've mauled the USD...hammered it...killed it!! I mean HOW can you expect a currency to recover if you've placed massive shorts on it...and you're carrying out your risky trades on it just because you know its going to fall further??!!

Spec, I'd love to hear your comments - there is NO way USD is recovering at least this year! Even oil has stopped in the 68s because it is priced in the USD and investors would now love to invest in (relatively cheaper) oil (opposed to shorting oil and making money).

It's making GBP look like Angelina Jolie...
14raj
Kolkata, India
Posts: 210
15 years ago
Sep 13, 2009 23:17
Ashraf,
just after the market open I am load myself with buy orders in USDJPY...average around 9028. I am now bit bullish in Dollar Index.I am eagerly waiting to know your view.Is it bit unrealistic to think that Yen is heading for 9500 level?
Regards,
Rajib.
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