Forum - Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis (Topic)

chloethebull

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

Sep 17, 2009 1:08

ya i have most of my blocks up for sale @ 1.880 or higher but will pull if usd gets momentum behind it...with this volitility anything is possible..thats why i think its more about the $$ an less about fund&tech....the big boys arre making a ton of $$$ on these huge swings..im only new to forex but am interested to know...where forex traders always making huge $$ on swings like this..another question is.. if forex market trades 100x the $$$ of all other markets..wouldn;t that give them control of how the ball moves day to day???but i agree usd could be under further pressure but my acct is inline an my uranium stok im holding is moving up nicely so that helps...gl nice talkn

Qin

Jonkoping, Sweden

Posts: 492

15 years ago

Sep 17, 2009 0:45

chloethebull,
I think it will go to 1.03 by the end of this year, but I don't know that if it will pull back before it reach to 1.03........market is little over short on USD, but I don't know when traders want to take their profits......

I don't think it will pull back to 1.10, if it pull back from tomorrow, from 1.08 to 1.09 is limited.......

by the way, my forecast next year on USD/CAD is 0.9........

Hope you will be fine......good luck and good night......

chloethebull

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

Sep 17, 2009 0:20

hey qin...was wondering where u were today...naw i just added more usdcad..i really hope im right..lol...but i do apreciate ur point of veiw..an all advice u offer...how low do u think usd could fall b4 we bounce up..or do u not see usd recovering back to 1.10..thanks

Qin

Jonkoping, Sweden

Posts: 492

15 years ago

Sep 16, 2009 23:06

asad, most of times, you are wrong......when you speak out........
you don't need to mention about what you posted on this blog.......everyone knows that what is your opinion on oil............if you forget, you should go back to check your comments for last 3 months.....

asad

London, UK

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

Sep 16, 2009 22:57

Qin,

I have as much knowledge of forex as you have of oil. Anything beyond specialism is Ashraf Laidi! But seriously, the day I delve into forex...trust me...I'll trade it AS good or bad as I trade oil. But I take it step by step.

Having said this, I'm not a complete nutter! I know my economics well...and can determine WHAT and WHEN of a given currency, even if generally.

At least I don't say that oil has a 50-50 chance ( just like you put e/thing at a common sensical 50% probability). When I say, I firmly and absolutely say it - 100%. And if I fail, I COMPLETELY own up to it - 100%!

asad

London, UK

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

Sep 16, 2009 22:52

Moe/Qin,

Thanks v/ much for your insight and concern. I do understand the negative correlation b/e USD and oil...and trade accordingly (& not just make it a matter of ego to STAY short when it should be long). But I really have my hand on the oil's pulse. Literally, I was short when it was to come down...and long when it was to go up. :) In fact, just before the inventory figs came...I was long...and eventually closed the position at 72.30. Pretty profitable! :)

But all wasn't right. Somehow, I had the tickle to go into FTSE and Nikkei in an exotic fashion - hedge one agaisnt the other. WEll, worked initially but ended up losing around 65% of what I had made today (but STILL scored the remaining 45 :) ). But my returns on oil were yet again hyperbolic (even if a shade to my previous trade)!

I had 72.40 in mind to short...and now that Ashraf puts his weight w/ 72.50/60, who am I not to go short? :)

Finally, I still think that oil has no fundamentals to it. It should b/w 60 & 65 (but who am I to determine)?

Moe

Sharjah, United Arab Emirates

Posts: 50

15 years ago

Sep 16, 2009 22:39

Qin,

Thanks. I agree with you regarding shorting dollar when opportunity arise...

Qin

Jonkoping, Sweden

Posts: 492

15 years ago

Sep 16, 2009 22:37

Moe,
The Japanese traders sent me warning !! High warning that USD/YEN may break 90 and possible to go to 60......

The FX market is changing now........Yen is not high yielding currency as everyone knows, but Yen is getting strong when the stock goes up recently........the end of the story will be even the stock goes down, USD still keep moving down......

I still don't want to touch Yen now......I can't predict it.......I don't want to speak out when I am not really sure the thing........I will wait until next year.........because shorting USD is much profitable than shorting Yen for me now.....

Good luck!!!

Qin

Jonkoping, Sweden

Posts: 492

15 years ago

Sep 16, 2009 22:29

chloethebull, I feel so sorry for you......did you take my advice to hedge your positions? hope you did before today's US market........

I wasn't really watching the market today, I went to Stockholm and just got back.....really tired......
My positions on short USD/NOK are still doing very well.....I think it will pull back a little bit in coming days or weeks, but I will add my short position on it little by little.......because I don't think the pare will back above 6.25........my positions are at 5.980.......

Good luck everyone!!!

Moe

Sharjah, United Arab Emirates

Posts: 50

15 years ago

Sep 16, 2009 22:29

Asad,

I know that you are bearish on crude and that crude has no fumdementals to go higher, but I have witnessed that the Dollar has been pounded for more than a month now and I take any drop in oil as an advantage to go long.

Qin,

What do you think about the Japanese Yen? I am building a long portflio of the USD/Yen pair for the long term.

Asharf,

Can I get your feedbak on the Yen after six months as well as the gold? I think by the year end we may see gold below the 950 level. What is your view.

Thanks