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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8935
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8935
Forum Topic:
Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
My approach is mathematical and insofar, too simple for tealeaf readers.
I start with buy low sell hi, thus there is a positive difference d. It matters not whether the difference is from along or a short call.
Thus the only question from which a theory can be completely and consistently derived is
what is the value of difference d, v(d).
This value is to be expressed in terms of a standard S, v(d)=f(S). This can be gold, cost of living, price of property.
The value of fiat money is self-referential v=f(v).
One doesn't need more to explain all those patterns of stock prices.
Thus a rather short-lived but hefty rally is expected. This has only one purpose that the big boys who buy on margin in new lows can completely empty their stocks portfolio with at least no loss.
If you use that as a divergence, the Philly fed is now at the same low but the market is higher, so we can expect it to move higher yet.
first major move was down from the top 1371 to 1258.. followed by major rally to 1356 and the current major decline:
1. down to 1296
2. up to 1347
3. down to 1102
4. up to 1208
5. down for a retest of 1100 at least and possibly 1010 this coming week..
expect bounce from there to 1200-1250 level.. followed by a biggie to 850..
(1) What would be the target for the new low to complete 5th wave down?
(2) I don't understand why this why this sequence will represent Wave 1 down?
(3) What is the target range for Wave 2 up?
SPX pattern exactly as predicted, it made the 127% extension on 1hr chart for wave 4 but we now need a new low to complete the 5th wave down in the sequence. That sequence will represent a minor wave 1 down. Wave 2 up will then follow but must not make a new high for the count to be validated. Wave 3 down will be the biggie, you aint seen nothing yet ! There is an alternate bearish count which I wont bother to describe unless it starts playing.
Thanks in advance
Ashraf will be pronounced god at least by his indian subcontinent clients if his silver target gets hit this month.. ill just settle for a title of 2nd guru to chandra if 45 gets hit:-)
yes Dave.. scalping is good place to be.. far better approach to that of Chavez:-) probably another sign of the top approaching.. just need it to make Baron's front page next week and we ready for a sizable correction..
SPX pattern exactly as predicted, it made the 127% extension on 1hr chart for wave 4 but we now need a new low to complete the 5th wave down in the sequence. That sequence will represent a minor wave 1 down. Wave 2 up will then follow but must not make a new high for the count to be validated. Wave 3 down will be the biggie, you aint seen nothing yet ! There is an alternate bearish count which I wont bother to describe unless it starts playing.