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VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal
BRICS equity indices fail at key fib retracements, VIX and oil near major trend lines and sterling's sell-appeal hasn't looked this good in a while.
sorry for this stupid question but at what time ibm release its quartely results?
thanks
Ashraf
Everything aside, PIMCO's forecasts cannot be ignored! El-Erian is an extremely shrewd and influential analyst (as Ashraf will also tell you) and he's been right on more occasions than not. PIMCO's own track record reflects that. They're a big fund and if they're selling bond, trust that there's some wisdom behind it...
Asad
and what about Oil
Most of the crowd on CNBC is talking their book (or as you say trying to get in at lower prices)
You've just got to hear the PIMCO crowd rubbishing the market - what else can you expect - they sell bonds, and CNBC is almost obliged to give them a fair say as PIMCO does spend a fair amount of advertising dollars with them - and could possibly have negotiated some "editorial" (non advertising) air time.
did not get into gbp long (thankfully) - needed it to bounce above 1.5860 - which it did not in the asian session. will probably go short if cable bounces to 1.58.
So why has sterling fallen even though they have been doing QE for so long. Well because there was a shock by the BoE for a weak pound favour and extention of ultra loose monterary policy and quantitative easing where most media sources were betting on a quick win for the pound in the summer. now we know that they want the pound to fall so it will continue to fall untill fundamentals change. I see 1.56 this week. we are still weaker on the pound than this time last year. A speculative run on the currency will develop again if it has not already. i would suggest going long when the currency becomes undervalued ie less than $1.53 and that is with great cautioun and evaluation as it may undershoot about 15% from there.
A naive and silly question for you...
If we know that earnings will be good...if we know that markets will still be going up during that time...and if we know there will be a huge correction after that...and if we know that the dollar can only rebound from here, then why are we all having a difference in opinion?
Further, why not just sit on the sidelines for two weeks and just short EVERYTHING at the end of October? Afterall, Dow will be 8900, oil 65, gold 980 and dollar 1.6 by November! *sarcastic* So why not sell our houses and go short?
So are we saying that NO human would be long on ANY asset class in November? Surel, it CAN'T be this easy. There is SOME twist in the tale...
Asad
thats the fun of a forum - we can have different points of view.
I see S&P at 1150+ in the next 4 to 6 weeks. that is what my volume indicators are suggesting, however as with these things they are not right all the time. I will go long on a clear break above 1080.
The correction or sideways moves have all been under 5% - as we have seen in the last few months.
Unfortunately, most of the time when we all start looking for a correction it does not happen.
next 2 to 3 weeks are very critical - as all the major earnings are released.
you could be right on downward / sideways movement from nov. but we could be knocking closer to 1200 by then. The sign of a strong correction will be much better earnings but no rally. thats when I'll get worried and start thinking of going short.
cable - u r probably right that is has peaked for the year - i am just looking for a short term bounce and i normally get 50% of them right.
Cable crashed after the expansion of QE by BOE - once that runs out, where will we go?
so historically still cheap.
bounce in the short term cause nearly everyone who wants to be short already is. only place left to go is up. though this does not always happen, so will play it with tight stops.
UK economy is weak - but keep looking at the FTSE - continues to make new highs - 5500+ possibly in the next month.
earning season should be good - the comparative quarter was weak and estimates are very low.
the financials dragged the market down - and they will the pull the market up. watch the options market on the major financials - call options for nov. expiry are large lots - institutional buyers are positioned for a substantial spike in the next 4 to 6 weeks.
but as we know - they can all be wrong. so play it smart.