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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8935
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8935
Forum Topic:
Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
when terminated the 50 percent retracement will be on 1436
the 23.6% ret level of the swing up from 4th June low was hit by SPX on Friday and ES today. These levels also coincided with the potential ABC patterns on daily charts for 100% symmetry, which has held on a retest today. Also confluence with their respective 55 DMA's. Quite a powerful bounce today which might be a heads up for either a completed ABC corrective or perhaps just abc:A with B now in progress.
LOD's were 1425.50 on SPX cash and 1416.50 on ES futures the latter spiking below its 100% sym level to kiss the 23.6% ret and bounce. Also the ES kissed trend support line drawn from the June low. We have multiple confluence of potential support.
second at 1427
next major support 1422
Goldman is coming with its results tomorrow/ testing the pivot point resitance at 130.
so maybe the financial will be underperformed by the material and energy.
Equities have been advancing on pure fumes for months on end from my perspective. Time and again invalidating my tech analysis so I defer to your better judgement. I can certainly see further daily chart downside in the short term. NYSE breadth has been showing a bullish divergence in the last coupla days but I am finding NYSE internals less than useful in the last 9 months or so. HFT has messed much of my traditional analysis.
Id say equities pullback and will not revisit years high until AFTER US elections.
Oil going to 95.90s
A
Looking at the SPX cash and futures, the futures has bullish divergence on breadth today and has reached key volume support at the 1424 level coinciding with pattern symmetry at 1422 and the 55 dma. The LOD is currently at 1421.25. A break of this level could see 127.2% at 1410.09 and we have daily trend support at 1416.50 which would become potential resistance. Further downside would target 1394.50.
The SPX cash is still shy of pattern symmetry at 1427.04 with the 127.2% ext at 1415.19. The cash closed at 1432.56 right on its potential support level.
Unfortunately Oil has not been correlated with stocks and CAD, very often playing inverse. Stochastics on both CL and Brent are suggesting north but I don't set much store in indicators. Suffice to say that oil is currently my least favourite instrument to trade :-)