Forum > View Topic (Article)
This thread was started in response to the Article:
VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal
BRICS equity indices fail at key fib retracements, VIX and oil near major trend lines and sterling's sell-appeal hasn't looked this good in a while.
Hey Spec ,
I just want to remember you , if you allowed me , last week you saw gbp/usd above 1.55 i think...
asad, stocks will not follow earnings. you cant trade earnings. Its about many factors. Interest rates, sidelined cash, investor herding, technical picture etc. we can easily get to close to 2007 by end of next year. only becuase of excess liquidity from the fed and others. so watch out on interest rate moves as that is what will mainly drive stocks.
the USD index is still stubbornly holding at 75. Any breach below will form a new downside to the dollar index and postpone the coming dollar bull in to 2010.
My predicition of a weakening yen, strengthening commodities currencies is playing well keeping the 75 level supported for now.
If you guys are waiting for a fundamental (earnings) based adjustment to stocks you will be waiting for a very long time. We are not in a 1929 economic era!!!!
But of course, position yourselves for the greatest dollar bull market either ther end of the year or very early 2009.
Totally agree w/ you...but don't you believe that oil at 79 & stock markets at 10,000 are paradoxical! I mean, leave aside that high oil price and recession are a self-fulfilling prophecy, how can businesses remain profitable if oil's touching 80. And still the markets are at 10,000?
You've taught me inter-market analysis over the months...but the above seems inconsistent w/ that learning (or else, I've more to learn). Surely, growth and profitability will be impeded if oil were to sustain the current levels.
S/thing HAS to give in - the recession or the oil price! & I firmly (still!) believe it will be the latter...
Asad
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-blogs/1250/
Ashraf
It's decision time. Am I willing to make my FIRST loss in oil? Or do I let my ego prevail? (Actually, I still think that oil will come down in the coming days + I am in an enviable position to absorb a hit + the market is closing for the week anyway...so why sell today).
Monday WILL be VERY interesting...
Asad
Black hawk down Black hawk down
Sorry Asad , i don"t want tobe so harsh...but this was one of my worsth day for me
In my few months here, I've NEVER seen SO many people call out for your opinion as today. Shows how volatile the market is. I'm counting at least four members 'under water', crying for your help. Hope you had a productive day...
Asad
Five people will tell you five different things! Whom will you follow? Suggest you decrease your positions as the market could well explode from here (although, oil is struggling to go beyond 78). n the coming days, oil should be around 75, so 78 should be your first short.
What's your risk management like? Make good use of stops and if possible, diversify w/ one of the indices - Dow or Nikkei (I use the latter).
Asad