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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Aug 22, 2009 3:37
Comments: 852
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal

BRICS equity indices fail at key fib retracements, VIX and oil near major trend lines and sterling's sell-appeal hasn't looked this good in a while.
 
redstone
bristol, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 20, 2009 7:32
Many thanks spec. what would be a good entry point for EUR/GPB ? in your opinion.
14raj
Kolkata, India
Posts: 210
15 years ago
Oct 20, 2009 0:09
Crude(NYMEX light , active) seems to have $81.20-$81.70 trgt range for making it a top where we can have a deep correction.
Rajib.
radu
bucharest, Romania
Posts: 203
15 years ago
Oct 20, 2009 0:04


Hi Asad ,
What is your average price on wti ?
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 19, 2009 23:52
Forum,

Shorted at the top of the market - 79.92! Let's see...


Asad
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 19, 2009 23:15
The extent of the dollar rally will be very sharp because of the large short positions against the currency (not with sterling) which will cause market to take action on large short positions. We are currently in an ultimate set up for the dollar's large upwards correction.

I do not expect sterling to be the worst performer but perhaps the Swiss and Canadian over the next 6 months. I suspect goldman will be profiting from this reversal as they are fully aware of what most are not.
radu
bucharest, Romania
Posts: 203
15 years ago
Oct 19, 2009 21:05


OK Spec ,

No offend ...I hope yu"ll be right ...and me to ( i look to sell gbp )
Good luck
nzvik
New Zealand
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 19, 2009 21:05
Agree with Spec - oil can keen going higher.

Asad, a lot of the fundamental theories work with a reasonably long time horizon (6 months+)

Even if the S&P tops - oil can keep going higher. The S&P topped in Q4 2007, Oil did not top till Q3 2008 - so lagged quite a lot.

But in dropping - things catch up very fast - in fact oil hit a bottom in Q4 2008 while the S&P did so in Q1 09. So while going up oil lagged by 3 quarters while going down Oil led by a quarter. As with most markets if you look at the same place you found cheese last time, you are unlikely to find it.

between 75 and 95 should not impact any growth.
radu
bucharest, Romania
Posts: 203
15 years ago
Oct 19, 2009 20:50



Hi Ashraf ,

I want to ask you if it possible to be a head and shoulders pattern on wti at the dayly (week) chart with the nekline above 73 -approximately and left shoulder begining at 53 ( sorry , i still don"t have your skills on technical analyse , but i began to work on that ) .
Thanks
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 19, 2009 20:50
redstone,

i certainly see parity. there is currently a war (due to uncertainty about interest rates) and about comments leaked from BoE officials on rates and QE.

Sterling is still in a bear market with record high bets on futures that it will fall. This can cause two issues as you could say that sterling has reached extreme levels of bearishness and has little way to fall. alternatively it could provoke further selling. as the market seems short on sterling, monetary fundamentals will totally move sterling.

if monetary policy signs exisit that tightening of rates and/or unwinding/ceasing of quantitative easing, a sharp rally of sterling will occur. but since i doubt that scenario, i believe this is a temporary bounce. but central bank actions are incredibaly difficult to forecast. so betting on the pound is betting on what the mpc at the boe will do not so much the fed.
redstone
bristol, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 19, 2009 20:32
Spec looking at your points do you still see EUR/GPB parity by year end or is sterling going to rally from now till end dec ?