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VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal
BRICS equity indices fail at key fib retracements, VIX and oil near major trend lines and sterling's sell-appeal hasn't looked this good in a while.
Rajib.
Hi Asad ,
What is your average price on wti ?
Shorted at the top of the market - 79.92! Let's see...
Asad
I do not expect sterling to be the worst performer but perhaps the Swiss and Canadian over the next 6 months. I suspect goldman will be profiting from this reversal as they are fully aware of what most are not.
OK Spec ,
No offend ...I hope yu"ll be right ...and me to ( i look to sell gbp )
Good luck
Asad, a lot of the fundamental theories work with a reasonably long time horizon (6 months+)
Even if the S&P tops - oil can keep going higher. The S&P topped in Q4 2007, Oil did not top till Q3 2008 - so lagged quite a lot.
But in dropping - things catch up very fast - in fact oil hit a bottom in Q4 2008 while the S&P did so in Q1 09. So while going up oil lagged by 3 quarters while going down Oil led by a quarter. As with most markets if you look at the same place you found cheese last time, you are unlikely to find it.
between 75 and 95 should not impact any growth.
Hi Ashraf ,
I want to ask you if it possible to be a head and shoulders pattern on wti at the dayly (week) chart with the nekline above 73 -approximately and left shoulder begining at 53 ( sorry , i still don"t have your skills on technical analyse , but i began to work on that ) .
Thanks
i certainly see parity. there is currently a war (due to uncertainty about interest rates) and about comments leaked from BoE officials on rates and QE.
Sterling is still in a bear market with record high bets on futures that it will fall. This can cause two issues as you could say that sterling has reached extreme levels of bearishness and has little way to fall. alternatively it could provoke further selling. as the market seems short on sterling, monetary fundamentals will totally move sterling.
if monetary policy signs exisit that tightening of rates and/or unwinding/ceasing of quantitative easing, a sharp rally of sterling will occur. but since i doubt that scenario, i believe this is a temporary bounce. but central bank actions are incredibaly difficult to forecast. so betting on the pound is betting on what the mpc at the boe will do not so much the fed.