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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Nov 19, 2009 21:57
Comments: 315
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Oil Weakness May Intensify

Oil sluggishness may risk turning into a faster selloff, especially as the fuel fails to gain on recent USD losses.
 
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Hedgie
Scunthorpe, UK
Posts: 16
14 years ago
Dec 2, 2009 11:42
Fastpips I agree there are many ways to skin a cat. But you should know that no one invests in Oil futures like they might do in equities. Oil is becoming a v speculative play (great post over at FT Alphaville) where BNP Paribas are claiming "oil prices have disconnected from physical reality, adding that until unconventional monetary policy is removed from the table the market can expect crude futures to trade as an investment class rather than a consumption asset."

The long term players in the oil market are the airlines (hedging), Oil majors and GS...unless you have the funds to match them your not going to get much joy out of "Investing" in oil
fastpips
surrey, Canada
Posts: 69
14 years ago
Dec 2, 2009 10:03
Hi!
Any experienced trader/investor knows that there are several ways of making money in these markets. I have two accounts, one is for investing where I use asad's approach and other is for trading where I use nzvik's approach. I am happy with both, but make more money in investing than trading. The other way around might be true for someone else. I WOULD ALSO SAY THAT ONE SHOULD STICK TO WHATEVER IS WORKING FOR YOU.
Good Luck All.
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Dec 2, 2009 1:46
Asad, if it is working for you - stick to it.
good luck
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Dec 2, 2009 1:42
NZ,

I know EXACTLY what word you had in mind, so I deflected... :p
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Dec 2, 2009 1:27
Asad,
I will pick "daring" though i had other words in mind :))
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Dec 2, 2009 0:41
First, I never claim(ed) to be Soros! Just wanted to make a point that doing s/thing 'exotic' regularly isn't out of the blue at all (as Soros made the killings of his life going against the tide).

Hedgie...the party thing was only to calm you down. As for the hole and the pole, do you think I'd let what I earned last week go down so easily? Same risk, same margin, same leverage? Think. I don't know when you wrote this post - I woke up a moment ago - by since then the crude a $ down from my SECOND short of 79! So the average of 76 & 79...and how many pips this is - i'll let you do the numbers. Because I'm extremely prudent in my leverage & risk management...I can hold on to (even losing) trades for long...I this is where my muscle lies, my friend.

NZ, thanks for the concise definition of arbitrage. & to complete your sentence, 'Shorting into strength is for deep pockets or the .....extremely prudent/confident/daring/intelligent (pick any).

Ashraf, I take everyone's advice VERY carefully...and it even forms part of my analysis - the final decision is, ofcourse, mine. And I needn't remind you what importance your advice holds for me. As a rule, I increase/decrease my exposures my exposure w/ factors like 1, 1.3. 1.6, 1.9/1, 0.7, 0.4, 0.1, depending on the probability (& my confidence) of the risk involved.

We don't know how the sailor thing will turn out to be...we don't know how bullish the investment community is...so the risk is high...and I am fully aware of it. But now that you've intervened, I just HAVE to be careful... :)


Asad
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Dec 1, 2009 23:08
Everyone, if you read today's IMTs and tweets on oil, i need to see a break above 78.70s and and ultimately above 80.30 to call the end of the 5-week downtrend. Or else, i remain bearish. I cannot be clearer than that.

Asad, as hedgie saidm very careful in doubling and tripling down..even if you're very confident. Soros had Drukenmiller to execute his trades and a couple of more bucks/

Ashraf
Hedgie
Scunthorpe, UK
Posts: 16
14 years ago
Dec 1, 2009 21:22
NZVik so true...you need V V deep pockets to win at that game. It's a strategy used by Global Macro funds and the majority of them eventually find themselves on the wrong side of the trade too often and for far too long. We shouldn't look at Soros and claim it a success as survivorship bias shades our view.
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Dec 1, 2009 21:07
Asad, I am happy being a trader, will leave you to play the Soros part. whatever works for you. Hopefully, we will still see you at this forum once you have made your billions.
arbitrage is a different game and to really benefit you need to be able to spot the gaps before others and play big positions, as these gaps close pretty quickly once others figure it out.
Shorting into strength is for deep pockets or the .....
Hedgie
Scunthorpe, UK
Posts: 16
14 years ago
Dec 1, 2009 20:41
Asad a.k.a Soros lol!!! by tonights close in NY that makes you 300 odd pips in the hole, not to mention the charge being incurred on going short. No pro trader or trading desk would allow any trader to "gamble" like this and you would have found your position closed down long ago. I would hold off on the lavish parties and sunseeker yacht as of yet.
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