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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Nov 19, 2009 21:57
Comments: 315
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Oil Weakness May Intensify

Oil sluggishness may risk turning into a faster selloff, especially as the fuel fails to gain on recent USD losses.
 
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Hedgie
Scunthorpe, UK
Posts: 16
14 years ago
Dec 3, 2009 12:27
Asad

P.S. Anything not demand-driven must definitely be superfluous...

Gunjack,

You'll be surprised that demand/supply DOES and IS still playing a part. If not, then why is NG not following oil's direction?

It's pretty discouraging at times when everyone is saying that oil is bullish...and me alone...like an idiot is talking about fundamentals

So that is 3 different posts from you where you have only spoken about demand/BASIC FUNDAMENTALS....You never spoke about external monetary factors and when other posters mentioned it you brushed it off...HAHAHA!!!
Hedgie
UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Dec 3, 2009 12:17
Asad - My point isn't about where the fair value of oil should be. If it's in the 80s or 60s makes no difference to me (I made my ill gotten gains in the city and can relax now). But when people start gloating about their trades, I start questioning their trading. Now lets take your extravagant claims as an example...Having gone and read the past threads on this forum I came across the following in the post - VIX, Oil, BRIC's.... When Oil first broke out from 76 and headed towards 80+ you were constantly calling it short and after a while went v suspiciously quiet...by my rough calculations you would have been 500-600pips in the hole on that move alone. Not to forget the financing charge you would pay on going short those swaps. Now do you seriously expect anyone to believe that you would have been able to keep doubling down on a 500-600pip loss. Then when Oil made it's move back down you triumphantly claimed your "genius" and foresight...you would have been closed out before you saw any gain mate!!!!

Now when you were about 300pips down you claim to have doubled up on that loss and now triumphantly claim to have made a fortune again...And please don't claim effective risk mgt as no risk manager would allow anyone to trade like this.

Not sure how BNP Paribas vindicated you as their point is that Oil, Gold and Equities are becoming a speculative play being effected by cheap cash. Didn't read them saying go short oil. Also from previous posts you were arguing that Oil is being effected by supply and demand and nothing to do with external monetary policy
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Dec 2, 2009 21:51
Hedgie,

Mate...it hapened RIGHT in front of YOUR eyes! I had opened a short at 76 a couple of days back...opened another at 79 yesterday...and VIOLA - oil currently stands within the 76 range! So let's start talking from here... :)

And oh, I felt sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo good when you added...

"oil prices have disconnected from physical reality, adding that until unconventional monetary policy is removed from the table the market can expect crude futures to trade as an investment class rather than a consumption asset."

Starting from Ashraf down to the newest newbie on the Forum knows that i've been SCREAMING this for MONTHS now...that oil's priced incorrectly (& should be in 60s)...but every now & then I'm being 'told' (Ashraf excluded) that I should stop worrying & get on w/ the trend!

But no. I have firmly stood by my beliefs that if left on its own, oil should, and will, retreat towards 70s. And EVERY time I've made money - today included - has been the time I've stuck to this belief. And now, BNP Paribas has vindicated me.

Let's leave the argument aside & make money - oil WILL tread towards 70...but don't know if you want to join in...


Asad


P.S. NZ, Fastpips...your points are taken and will definitely form a part of my strategy...
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Dec 2, 2009 18:35
chloe, late reaction but now its moving nicely. see USDCAD

kidwai, do you read my IMTs and twets. it failed at 1.6735 but may retry again. still looking bearish to me. aussie not expected to break above 0.9330

Ashraf
kidwai
karachi, Pakistan
Posts: 77
14 years ago
Dec 2, 2009 18:07
Hi Ashraf Brother,How are you pls giued me on GBP/USD and AUS/USD.
Thanks.
Best Regards.
chloethebull
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Dec 2, 2009 17:43
hey ashraf, any thought on the beige book due out 1hr 20min..ok thanks
chloethebull
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Dec 2, 2009 15:47
hi ashraf can u explain why with huge build in invent plus -169kvs -150k usd is not moving up ..thanks
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Dec 2, 2009 14:24
chloe, wait for CAN jobs report on Fri and all eyes will be on whther there will be an imporvement after that awful Oct report. USDCAD will need very good US and CAN report to drag USDCAD below 1.04. immed resistance at 1.0540.

Ashraf
chloethebull
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Dec 2, 2009 13:24
with a greater neg # of -169k over 150k ..were do u see the limited upside to usdcad..thanks
Hedgie
UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Dec 2, 2009 12:26
Asad - You can justify your "investing" with any numbers you want but the fact of the matter is if the largest HF's/prop desks have to cut losing trades how can an individual outlast someone with greater financial muscle? You say your prudent and that's fair enough but then your winning trades will be tempered by your prudence...so your extravagant claims of last week seem a bit hollow...Can't have it both ways...brilliant risk mgt and amazing timing!!!
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