Forum > View Topic
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3054
Forum Topic:

GBP

Discuss GBP
 
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
Jun 6, 2013 0:44
some more encouraging stats recently. GU has gained 400 pips from the 29th May low yet Ashraf makes no mention, except a brief reference to a short trade :-) Sometimes I wonder if AL is unduly anti UK even though he resides here. He is always quick enough to mention any miniscule positive data for the eur and the usd. Adam Button is also unduly anti the BOE and more recently published a scathing attack on the departing Mark Carney from the BOC. I guess in preparation for continued attacks on the poor old BOE :-)

George, the GU made the recent low at the 78.6% level and has since retraced >61.8% level at 1.5377 (current 1.5408). The move back up does not yet look corrective on the daily chart. Implications are for higher prices even if we see a near term correction first.

As to your question I assume you refer to the current plan to promote new house builds. My opinion is this has the potential to ignore the mistakes of the past with the sub prime debacle. Can we trust the politicians and financial industry to employ strict affordability criteria for the tax payer sponsored mortgages ?

There is no evidence that credit reference agencies and banks have reformed. No one sent them back to primary school to learn the meaning of a "loan" and to learn once again how to calculate LTV's and earnings multiples. Who is going to administer and process the new mortgage applications. I have no faith in the financial industry as you know. The job would be better done by moderately well educated 10 year old children.

DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
Jun 5, 2013 14:16
my troops are always at the ready, iron discipline. Their leader has not fealt much to contribute.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
11 years ago
Jun 3, 2013 19:44
Strength meter showed today GBP strength constant while USD crashed after weak economic data. Thus cable rose as USD was sold vs JPY. GBPAUD GBPJPY shorts running.
GBP actually is weak. Lives only off very weak USD.
Btw. London Tube stations/lines could be renamed under sponsorship proposals that is Merkel Place, Merkel Palace, Merkel Square etc. All these are serviced by Merkel Line ( uses right track )
Technically Speaking
Karachi, Pakistan
Posts: 0
11 years ago
May 25, 2013 18:26
GBP Long Term - Bullish for 1.5580, www.tecspeaking.com
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
May 24, 2013 15:05
nah, not into the black stuff, would rather supervise female pearl divers for Sir Ignore.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
May 24, 2013 1:57
In reply to DaveO's post
I am not talking about illicit cash, fully legal savings.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
May 24, 2013 1:48
I suspect cat is right, best protection for cash savings is greenbacks in the fire safe. Whatever we choose will be wrong, you can be sure of that--so the answer is to be in maybe 3 currencies. I have a safe full of iraqi dinars since july 2004, rather disappointing lol.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
May 23, 2013 21:04
OK George, I have your analysis noted. I don't normally look at gbpchf unless they show maximum divergence on strength chart for intra day trade. I should pay closer attention and move cash to swiss chf deposit account ! I am not convinced about UK growth until they start getting serious money to the small businesses and new start ups. This will probably mean by-passing the banks. Perhaps Carney will have some good ideas.

Our house building initiative is still under debate, we don't want to repeat the sub prime debacle in a different guise. 95% mortgages must be incredibly tightly scrutinised for affordability and job security or the tax payer will yet again suffer the consequences of default. I have no faith in regulators and credit reference agencies.

The US macro position is still subject to a monumental pile of debt plus a CB which is stuck with QE purchasing. Short term stats can be encouraging but underneath lies an ever increasing black economy. Companies employ part time to avoid the healthcare liability. Potential job seekers are happy to be part time to continue receiving food stamps and state healthcare cover plus black economy activities. They can earn far more remaining under the radar and take what the state readily giveth. The net result is reflected in lower tax receipts and the need for further austerity measures = tax increases, spending cuts = low growth environment for many yrs to come.

It all means Obama has cocked up.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
May 22, 2013 9:40
big miss on UK retail sales, 1.5030 next
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
May 21, 2013 18:14
GU made 61.8% target at 1.5127