USD

market participant and knowledge to act

"If there is ever another major war, it will begin because one side has obtained (or believes it has obtained) such a complete knowledge of the enemy's intentions and capabilities that it is sure that with its own resources victory is possible and easy." philip warner


"Cheshire Puss." she began rather timidly..." would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?" "That depends a good deal on where you want to get to." said the cat. Alice in Wonderland Lewis Carroll

it depict quite well the intrigue of the market place and market history

one day a military man told me that when even with finance they wont get they will do everything to find something.

Dear Ashraf,

As you see CHf appreciated so much since 1988 vs EU , Do you think any intervention of CBS ?

@ASHRAF
@FORUM

in order to finance the recovery and to launch the economy it will depend how sustained the jobs market will pick up and how the institutions are gonna create inflation. Without inflation creation there wont be sustain recovery in the markets( even if i expect a correction during 2010 ).
To fuel a gradual recovery in inflation creation the us will impose by the market forces cheap energy to fuel the manufacturing recovery.
i have two scenario for oil over the coming months, one is barrel at the low of 45 a barrel followed by a trading range between 40 and 65-70, the other one is barrel at the marginal cost of deep sea extraction cost.
as for natgas one has to bear in mind that the reception coming in completion all across th usa is gonna create a shif t in consumption from europe to the usa. the non aligned policy in gas producer will push the price of natgas at 3.50 by next year, that gives us an eighty roughly discount compared to the actual price. this low level of enregy or "deflated price" are gonna lower volatility in indices markets and an inflow in USD dollar. on the macro side we re gonna have a period where the US will phase out the export driven economy by driving up the national consumption. even if china will stay the main trade partner the card will be in the strengh of the national economy and everyone knows the correlation between trade balance nad USD currency valuation.
few weeks ago i wrote a personal paper stating that USD will strenghning to as low as 1.1 or 1.15 just before hearing that some hedges fund are btting on the same level . on a technical analysis point of view EURUSD can fall as low as 0.90-95 on the dollar. for that to happen on the european side the criteria of maastricht on budget requirement will not be sustained or the level will be revised. we have to mind that the eurobonds market is gonna skyrocket in term of volume and this is all the merit of Paul Volcker and its europeean counterpart by drafting a law that limits the systemic failure of american universal bank. on the us side treasury will be priced at around the level of 2007 before we got another treasury bubble.

any comments would be welcomed.

said

Mr Laidi, please could i have your views on the AUDUSD pair. Many thanks.